luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Commanders at Lions, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Commanders 36–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Lions win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:18 left): the Lions converted 3rd & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Washington Commanders 27
Detroit Lions 36

September 18, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Commanders −1

Luck index +45 Lions lucky · −45 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 4, Lions win 6.

  1. 1 WAS 57 DET 33
  2. 2 WAS 37 DET 22
  3. 3 WAS 24 DET 17
  4. 4 WAS 33 DET 31
  5. 5 WAS 33 DET 35
  6. 6 WAS 17 DET 23
  7. 7 WAS 21 DET 29
  8. 8 WAS 30 DET 43
  9. 9 WAS 23 DET 41
  10. 10 WAS 17 DET 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 45% of them, Lions 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+12.3%
Commanders by 9–1612.8%
Commanders by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation5.2%
Lions by 1–820.5%
Lions by 9–1614.6%
Lions by 17+14.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 9.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:21 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% WAS DET: Punt
2 Q1 10:18 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +13% DET DET: Field goal
3 Q1 4:11 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% WAS DET: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 4:07 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% WAS DET: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:25 T. Hockenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 6 catchable balls before this +4% WAS DET: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:45 The Lions converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
7 Q2 13:51 A. Seibert made 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 9 of 17 from 45+ before +5% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:38 The Lions converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% DET DET: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Bryant (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kamren Curl (WAS FS), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 6% · Lions 94%

Final margin
Lions by 9
Luck in points
0.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 45% · Lions 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Commanders · Lions

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