luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Dolphins at Ravens, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Ravens 42–38, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Dolphins win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Ravens, worth 21 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Miami Dolphins 42
Baltimore Ravens 38

September 18, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +56 Dolphins lucky · −56 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Ravens win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 34 BAL 12
  2. 2 MIA 26 BAL 14
  3. 3 MIA 23 BAL 16
  4. 4 MIA 36 BAL 34
  5. 5 MIA 20 BAL 21
  6. 6 MIA 26 BAL 30
  7. 7 MIA 20 BAL 27
  8. 8 MIA 13 BAL 24
  9. 9 MIA 34 BAL 50
  10. 10 MIA 17 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 44% of them, Ravens 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+8.6%
Dolphins by 9–1613.1%
Dolphins by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Ravens by 1–825.1%
Ravens by 9–1615.4%
Ravens by 17+15.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Dolphins by 4, without the luck Dolphins by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 51 yards, Ravens 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:26 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.6 pts
Q1 3:28 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q1 1:21 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Melvin Ingram), 2 yards +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 4:53 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Melvin Ingram), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 10:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BAL +2.0 pts
Q3 3:27 Tripping on the Dolphins (Chase Edmonds), 10 yards +2% BAL +1.6 pts
Q4 7:47 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yards 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q4 4:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Brandon Jones), 9 yards +3% BAL +0.5 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Return touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +21% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:08 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 5:58 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +4% MIA BAL: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 14:47 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% MIA BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:25 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% BAL MIA: End of half
6 Q4 5:27 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:23 J. Tucker made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 35 of 41 from 45+ before +10% BAL BAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:04 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +15% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Stephens (BAL FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 89% · Ravens 11%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
2.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 44% · Ravens 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Dolphins · Ravens

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