luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2022 · September 19, 2022

Vikings at Eagles, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Vikings 24–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:47 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 13, worth 10 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 7
Philadelphia Eagles 24

September 19, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +2 Eagles about even · −2 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 MIN 10 PHI 13
  2. 2 MIN 20 PHI 27
  3. 3 MIN 16 PHI 26
  4. 4 MIN 10 PHI 23
  5. 5 MIN 0 PHI 16
  6. 6 MIN 10 PHI 29
  7. 7 MIN 10 PHI 32
  8. 8 MIN 0 PHI 25
  9. 9 MIN 9 PHI 38
  10. 10 MIN 10 PHI 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 2% of them, Eagles 98%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.0%
Vikings by 9–160.2%
Vikings by 1–81.2%
Level after regulation0.2%
Eagles by 1–84.1%
Eagles by 9–1614.8%
Eagles by 17+79.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Eagles by 17, without the luck Eagles by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds blocked · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 25 yards, Eagles 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIN +3.0 pts
Q1 9:09 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q1 7:34 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +2% MIN +1.0 pts
Q1 5:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.3 pts
Q1 1:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q1 0:39 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 8:07 Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:53 Face Mask on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +1.5 pts
Q3 13:29 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 6:06 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 4:27 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 14:30 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIN +3.7 pts
Q4 11:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards 0% PHI +0.8 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% MIN MIN: Punt
2 Q1 11:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:49 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% PHI MIN: Punt
4 Q1 7:05 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% PHI PHI: Punt
5 Q1 5:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1060 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +5% MIN MIN: Punt
6 Q1 3:30 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% PHI MIN: Punt
7 Q2 11:07 The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:41 I. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +3% PHI MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 17
Luck in points
2.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 2% · Eagles 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Vikings · Eagles

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