2022 season · final
Minnesota Vikings, 2022: game by game
The Vikings went 13–4 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.0 wins. Luck added 5.0: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 11–0.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.
Every game
How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Packers | W 23–7 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 2 | @ Eagles | L 7–24 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 3 | vs Lions | W 28–24 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 4 | vs Saints | W 28–25 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 5 | vs Bears | W 29–22 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 6 | @ Dolphins | W 24–16 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 8 | vs Cardinals | W 34–26 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 9 | @ Commanders | W 20–17 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 10 | @ Bills | W 33–30 | 14% | +86 |
| Week 11 | vs Cowboys | L 3–40 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 12 | vs Patriots | W 33–26 | 21% | +79 |
| Week 13 | vs Jets | W 27–22 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 14 | @ Lions | L 23–34 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 15 | vs Colts | W 39–36 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 16 | vs Giants | W 27–24 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 17 | @ Packers | L 17–41 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 18 | @ Bears | W 29–13 | 63% | +37 |
| Wild Card | vs Giants | L 24–31 | 32% | −32 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +1.04 | +29.5 |
| Kicks | +0.39 | −23.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.35 | +6.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.34 | +11.6 |
| Injuries | +0.31 | +11.6 |
| Drops | +0.14 | −3.6 |