luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 24, 2022

Patriots at Vikings, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Patriots 33–26, but the replays lean toward the Patriots: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Vikings.

The Vikings won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:54 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 24 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New England Patriots 26
Minnesota Vikings 33

November 24, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +79 Vikings very lucky · −79 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Vikings win 2.

  1. 1 NE 38 MIN 9
  2. 2 NE 52 MIN 31
  3. 3 NE 24 MIN 7
  4. 4 NE 41 MIN 27
  5. 5 NE 13 MIN 3
  6. 6 NE 27 MIN 20
  7. 7 NE 34 MIN 29
  8. 8 NE 12 MIN 10
  9. 9 NE 15 MIN 20
  10. 10 NE 23 MIN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Vikings won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.

36 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.11 worse by 0.03
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed +0.21 +0.06 worse by 0.15
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.21 +0.10 better by 0.12
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.11 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 79% of them, Vikings 21%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+31.5%
Patriots by 9–1621.3%
Patriots by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation2.5%
Vikings by 1–811.4%
Vikings by 9–166.7%
Vikings by 17+2.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 7, without the luck Vikings by 3.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 34 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Joseph, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Folk, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 6 for 55 yards, Vikings 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:41 Face Mask on the Patriots, 15 yards +4% MIN +1.8 pts
Q1 5:27 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Davon Godchaux), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% NE +1.8 pts
Q2 5:08 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 4:37 Face Mask on the Patriots, 15 yards +6% MIN +1.8 pts
Q3 0:46 False Start on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.5 pts
Q3 0:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots, 10 yards +6% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 11:51 False Start on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.7 pts
Q4 11:04 Running Into the Kicker on the Patriots, 5 yards +9% MIN +2.7 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:44 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q2 5:08 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedDefensive Offside on the Patriots (Matt Judon), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 18 flags in 3112 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:46 The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q3 10:54 Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +24% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:37 Face Mask on the Patriots, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% MIN MIN: Field goal
6 Q3 3:22 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 14:11 G. Joseph made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:04 Running Into the Kicker on the Patriots, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 24% · Vikings 76%

Final margin
Vikings by 7
Luck in points
3.3 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 79% · Vikings 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Patriots · Vikings

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