luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Raiders at Seahawks, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Seahawks 40–34, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Seahawks.

An off day for the Seahawks: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:56 left): D. Carlson missed 56-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final (OT)

Las Vegas Raiders 40
Seattle Seahawks 34

November 27, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +14 Raiders about even · −14 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Seahawks win 1.

  1. 1 LV 47 SEA 10
  2. 2 LV 49 SEA 20
  3. 3 LV 44 SEA 21
  4. 4 LV 55 SEA 36
  5. 5 LV 41 SEA 26
  6. 6 LV 40 SEA 27
  7. 7 LV 37 SEA 27
  8. 8 LV 51 SEA 45
  9. 9 LV 39 SEA 37
  10. 10 LV 29 SEA 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Seahawks

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

43 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.34 +0.10 better by 0.24
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.11 worse by 0.11
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.13 better by 0.09
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed +0.34 +0.10 worse by 0.24

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 86% of them, Seahawks 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+48.6%
Raiders by 9–1619.4%
Raiders by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Seahawks by 1–87.6%
Seahawks by 9–163.9%
Seahawks by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 0:56 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedF. Moreau dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 23 catchable balls before this +12% SEA LV: Punt
2 Q4 5:44 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:58 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% LV SEA: Punt
4 Q4 0:48 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LV LV: End of game
5 QOT 9:16 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +16% LV LV: Missed field goal
6 QOT 6:27 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% SEA LV: Missed field goal
7 QOT 5:56 D. Carlson missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 30 of 36 from 45+ before +19% SEA LV: Touchdown
8 QOT 4:43 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +15% LV SEA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 86% · Seahawks 14%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
2.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 86% · Seahawks 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Raiders · Seahawks

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