luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Texans at Dolphins, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Texans 30–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 85% favorites.

Final

Houston Texans 15
Miami Dolphins 30

November 27, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −14

Luck index +1 Dolphins about even · −1 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 HOU 28 MIA 33
  2. 2 HOU 24 MIA 34
  3. 3 HOU 7 MIA 21
  4. 4 HOU 16 MIA 33
  5. 5 HOU 10 MIA 30
  6. 6 HOU 17 MIA 41
  7. 7 HOU 10 MIA 37
  8. 8 HOU 10 MIA 41
  9. 9 HOU 14 MIA 50
  10. 10 HOU 6 MIA 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 1% of them, Dolphins 99%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.0%
Texans by 9–160.1%
Texans by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Dolphins by 1–81.9%
Dolphins by 9–166.5%
Dolphins by 17+90.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Texans: the final margin was Dolphins by 15, without the luck Dolphins by 16.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Sanders, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 45 yards, Dolphins 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% HOU +1.8 pts
Q1 2:10 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:01 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Face Mask on the Texans (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo), 12 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 12:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 13 yards, wiping out the play +1% MIA +4.3 pts
Q3 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Jevon Holland), 15 yards 0% HOU +1.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 12:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q4 7:12 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards 0% MIA +0.9 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% MIA HOU: Punt
2 Q1 11:47 J. Wilson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +4% HOU MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 11:42 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q1 11:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q1 4:19 The Dolphins converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +3% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:57 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +3% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q2 12:38 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +3% MIA HOU: Punt
8 Q2 5:10 The Texans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +6% MIA HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Raheem Mostert (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Brevin Jordan (HOU TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 1% · Dolphins 99%

Final margin
Dolphins by 15
Luck in points
1.3 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 1% · Dolphins 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Texans · Dolphins

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