luckadjusted

Week 12 2022 · November 27, 2022

Bengals at Titans, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Titans 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.1 points to the Titans.

An off day for the Titans: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:58 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 12, worth 15 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 20
Tennessee Titans 16

November 27, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −1

Luck index +13 Bengals about even · −13 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 39 TEN 10
  2. 2 CIN 30 TEN 6
  3. 3 CIN 33 TEN 13
  4. 4 CIN 37 TEN 20
  5. 5 CIN 37 TEN 24
  6. 6 CIN 30 TEN 19
  7. 7 CIN 16 TEN 7
  8. 8 CIN 21 TEN 16
  9. 9 CIN 31 TEN 29
  10. 10 CIN 20 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

34 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.15 worse by 0.01
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.07 better by 0.01
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.11 worse by 0.05
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.07 worse by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 87% of them, Titans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+41.8%
Bengals by 9–1623.8%
Bengals by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation1.7%
Titans by 1–88.4%
Titans by 9–162.9%
Titans by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 8.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Shudak, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Shudak, 35 yds missed · 91% expected
  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Shudak, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Shudak, 38 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chris Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 402 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +12% TEN TEN: Punt
2 Q1 0:22 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 0:08 C. Shudak missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +10% CIN TEN: Punt
4 Q3 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yardsJudgment calls +10% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q3 2:38 E. McPherson made 38-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:46 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +12% CIN TEN: Field goal
7 Q4 13:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% TEN TEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Bullock (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Terrance Mitchell (TEN CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin Huber (CIN P), out · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Tupou (CIN NT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 78% · Titans 22%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
4.5 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 87% · Titans 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · Bengals · Titans

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