Week 12 2022 · November 24, 2022
Giants at Cowboys, Week 12 2022: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Giants 28–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
The Cowboys won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 49%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:11 left): S. Barkley dropped a catchable pass, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 New York Giants | 20 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Cowboys lucky · −51 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Giants win 5, Cowboys win 5.
- 1 NYG 30 DAL 10
- 2 NYG 15 DAL 3
- 3 NYG 38 DAL 30
- 4 NYG 34 DAL 30
- 5 NYG 25 DAL 23
- 6 NYG 20 DAL 22
- 7 NYG 17 DAL 24
- 8 NYG 20 DAL 30
- 9 NYG 13 DAL 27
- 10 NYG 10 DAL 31
Your call
Did the Cowboys earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Cowboys won on an off day
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 79% of the time; with this day’s form, 49%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Cowboys: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.05 | worse by 0.25 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.31 | +0.13 | worse by 0.18 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.31 | +0.14 | better by 0.18 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.07 | better by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Giants win 51% of them, Cowboys 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Giants by 17+ | 10.0% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 14.3% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 23.0% |
| Level after regulation | 6.1% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 10.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Gano, 57 yds made · 71% expected
- G. Gano, 47 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Maher, 46 yds missed · 79% expected
Penalties: Giants 7 for 66 yards, Cowboys 13 for 86 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:06 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +11% DAL +3.8 pts |
| Q1 9:52 | Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Daniel Jones), 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:17 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:06 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 7 yards | +1% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Carlos Watkins), 5 yards | +3% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q2 3:52 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +7% NYG +2.0 pts |
| Q2 3:23 | Illegal Contact on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards | +4% DAL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:09 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 5 yards | +1% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +16% NYG +3.3 pts |
| Q2 0:30 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards | +4% DAL +1.3 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:41 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:31 | False Start on the Cowboys (Noah Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:54 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NYG +1.7 pts |
| Q4 3:59 | False Start on the Giants (Richie James), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Rodarius Williams), 31 yards | 0% DAL +2.5 pts |
| Q4 0:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 14 yards | 0% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:16 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG +0.3 pts |
Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 32% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:40 | The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +10% NYG | DAL: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:06 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 7:15 | The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +7% NYG | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 3:52 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 1:36 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2510 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +16% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:39 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:26 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +14% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:11 | S. Barkley dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 40 catchable balls before this | +16% DAL | NYG: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Barr (DAL LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Jake McQuaide (DAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
- Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Fabian Moreau (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
- Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jon Feliciano (NYG C), out · 0.3 pts
- Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Giants 18% · Cowboys 82%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 8
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Giants 51% · Cowboys 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2022 games · 
Giants · 
Cowboys
More from Week 12 2022
- Bills at Lions BUF 28–25 · replay 80% for the winner
- Patriots at Vikings MIN 33–26 · replay 21% for the winner
- Falcons at Commanders WAS 19–13 · replay 32% for the winner
- Ravens at Jaguars JAX 28–27 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bears at Jets NYJ 31–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans CIN 20–16 · replay 87% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers CAR 23–10 · replay 64% for the winner
- Texans at Dolphins MIA 30–15 · replay 99% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Browns CLE 23–17 · replay 38% for the winner
- Chargers at Cardinals LAC 25–24 · replay 46% for the winner
- Raiders at Seahawks LV 40–34 · replay 85% for the winner
- Rams at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at 49ers SF 13–0 · replay 37% for the winner
- Packers at Eagles PHI 40–33 · replay 66% for the winner
- Steelers at Colts PIT 24–17 · replay 84% for the winner