2022 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2022: game by game
The Cowboys went 12–5 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Buccaneers | L 3–19 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 2 | vs Bengals | W 20–17 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 3 | @ Giants | W 23–16 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 4 | vs Commanders | W 25–10 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 5 | @ Rams | W 22–10 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 6 | @ Eagles | L 17–26 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | W 24–6 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 8 | vs Bears | W 49–29 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 10 | @ Packers | L 28–31 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 11 | @ Vikings | W 40–3 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | vs Giants | W 28–20 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 13 | vs Colts | W 54–19 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 14 | vs Texans | W 27–23 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | L 34–40 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 16 | vs Eagles | W 40–34 | 57% | +43 |
| Week 17 | @ Titans | W 27–13 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | @ Commanders | L 6–26 | 6% | −6 |
| Wild Card | @ Buccaneers | W 31–14 | 98% | +2 |
| Divisional round | @ 49ers | L 12–19 | 23% | −23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.87 | +17.9 |
| Drops | +0.49 | +8.2 |
| Kicks | +0.27 | +8.4 |
| Judgment calls | +0.25 | +3.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.13 | +1.9 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.6 |
| Injuries | −0.41 | −10.9 |