luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2022: game by game

The Cowboys went 12–5 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 8th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Buccaneers L 3–19 5% −5
Week 2 vs Bengals W 20–17 79% +21
Week 3 @ Giants W 23–16 96% +4
Week 4 vs Commanders W 25–10 84% +16
Week 5 @ Rams W 22–10 32% +68
Week 6 @ Eagles L 17–26 29% −29
Week 7 vs Lions W 24–6 52% +48
Week 8 vs Bears W 49–29 93% +7
Week 10 @ Packers L 28–31 54% −54
Week 11 @ Vikings W 40–3 88% +12
Week 12 vs Giants W 28–20 65% +35
Week 13 vs Colts W 54–19 92% +8
Week 14 vs Texans W 27–23 78% +22
Week 15 @ Jaguars L 34–40 64% −64
Week 16 vs Eagles W 40–34 66% +34
Week 17 @ Titans W 27–13 96% +4
Week 18 @ Commanders L 6–26 6% −6
Wild Card @ Buccaneers W 31–14 95% +5
Divisional round @ 49ers L 12–19 25% −25

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+12.6+0.74
Kicks+9.1+0.54
Judgment calls+6.7+0.39
Drops+4.5+0.27
3rd & 4th downs+4.4+0.26
Rest+1.6+0.09
Injuries−14.4−0.85