luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2022 · January 16, 2023

Cowboys at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Buccaneers 31–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 57% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

January 16, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −2.5

Luck index +2 Cowboys about even · −2 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Buccaneers win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 38 TB 3
  2. 2 DAL 45 TB 17
  3. 3 DAL 31 TB 7
  4. 4 DAL 31 TB 10
  5. 5 DAL 31 TB 13
  6. 6 DAL 39 TB 24
  7. 7 DAL 29 TB 17
  8. 8 DAL 23 TB 14
  9. 9 DAL 27 TB 20
  10. 10 DAL 24 TB 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 98% of them, Buccaneers 2%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+78.3%
Cowboys by 9–1614.6%
Cowboys by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Buccaneers by 1–81.5%
Buccaneers by 9–160.4%
Buccaneers by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Cowboys by 17, without the luck Cowboys by 23.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 2 for 15 yards, Buccaneers 3 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:08 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Akiem Hicks), 15 yards +5% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 8:38 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 1:19 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 11:56 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 9:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers, 14 yards 0% DAL +1.3 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:08 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Akiem Hicks), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1759 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:11 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q1 2:11 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q1 0:47 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q2 14:58 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% DAL TB: Punt
6 Q2 9:59 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:13 The Cowboys missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +4% TB DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Robert Hainsey (TB C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Wells (TB T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Leverett (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 17
Luck in points
6.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 23.2
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 98% · Buccaneers 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Cowboys · Buccaneers

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