luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023

Ravens at Bengals, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 11:54 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 74 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 17
Cincinnati Bengals 24

January 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +43 Bengals lucky · −43 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 4, Bengals win 6.

  1. 1 BAL 28 CIN 10
  2. 2 BAL 21 CIN 9
  3. 3 BAL 19 CIN 12
  4. 4 BAL 16 CIN 13
  5. 5 BAL 20 CIN 23
  6. 6 BAL 17 CIN 23
  7. 7 BAL 28 CIN 35
  8. 8 BAL 7 CIN 17
  9. 9 BAL 3 CIN 19
  10. 10 BAL 7 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 43% of them, Bengals 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+6.3%
Ravens by 9–1613.4%
Ravens by 1–820.0%
Level after regulation3.2%
Bengals by 1–828.8%
Bengals by 9–1617.3%
Bengals by 17+11.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 7, without the luck Bengals by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 4 for 36 yards, Bengals 7 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:05 Taunting on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 10 yards +4% CIN +1.3 pts
Q1 0:47 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +1.9 pts
Q2 6:41 Face Mask on the Bengals, 3 yards +5% BAL +1.9 pts
Q3 7:03 False Start on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 5:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 1 yard 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q4 8:55 Roughing the Kicker on the Ravens (Geno Stone), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% BAL +1.3 pts
Q4 4:34 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.4 pts
Q4 3:25 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards +3% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 3:25 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.2 pts
Q4 1:20 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +0.2 pts
Q4 0:29 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +16% CIN +1.7 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:06 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% CIN BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:05 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:47 The Bengals fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL CIN: End of half
4 Q3 6:37 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:54 The game turned hereThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +74% CIN BAL: Punt
6 Q4 1:25 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +15% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:20 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CIN BAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:29 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Cappa (CIN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 6% · Bengals 94%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
2.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 43% · Bengals 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Ravens · Bengals

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