luckadjusted

Wild Card 2022 · January 15, 2023

Ravens at Bengals, Wild Card 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 24–17, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 4.6 points to the Bengals.

The Bengals won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:54 left): Return touchdown by the Bengals, worth 100 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 17
Cincinnati Bengals 24

January 15, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +62 Bengals very lucky · −62 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Bengals win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 34 CIN 13
  2. 2 BAL 15 CIN 0
  3. 3 BAL 28 CIN 17
  4. 4 BAL 20 CIN 12
  5. 5 BAL 22 CIN 17
  6. 6 BAL 19 CIN 17
  7. 7 BAL 14 CIN 17
  8. 8 BAL 10 CIN 17
  9. 9 BAL 20 CIN 31
  10. 10 BAL 3 CIN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Bengals won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.

34 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.10 better by 0.08
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.09 worse by 0.02
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.15 worse by 0.04
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.07 worse by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 62% of them, Bengals 38%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+13.1%
Ravens by 9–1617.1%
Ravens by 1–829.5%
Level after regulation2.4%
Bengals by 1–820.5%
Bengals by 9–1612.0%
Bengals by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 3.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:53 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:59 The Ravens converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 2:47 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% BAL CIN: End of half
4 Q3 6:37 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:45 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% BAL BAL: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 11:54 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +100% CIN BAL: Punt
7 Q4 1:25 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +20% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:29 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Cappa (CIN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 9% · Bengals 91%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
3.7 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 62% · Bengals 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2022 games · Ravens · Bengals

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