2022 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2022: game by game
The Ravens went 10–7 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.6 wins. Luck added 1.4: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.4.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jets | W 24–9 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 2 | vs Dolphins | L 38–42 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | W 37–26 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | L 20–23 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 5 | vs Bengals | W 19–17 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 6 | @ Giants | L 20–24 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 7 | vs Browns | W 23–20 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 8 | @ Buccaneers | W 27–22 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 9 | @ Saints | W 27–13 | 41% | +59 |
| Week 11 | vs Panthers | W 13–3 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | @ Jaguars | L 27–28 | 79% | −79 |
| Week 13 | vs Broncos | W 10–9 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 14 | @ Steelers | W 16–14 | 26% | +74 |
| Week 15 | @ Browns | L 3–13 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 16 | vs Falcons | W 17–9 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 17 | vs Steelers | L 13–16 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 18 | @ Bengals | L 16–27 | 13% | −13 |
| Wild Card | @ Bengals | L 17–24 | 43% | −43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.63 | +8.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.18 | +1.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.06 | +10.6 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.4 |
| Drops | −0.06 | −1.3 |
| Judgment calls | −0.22 | −1.9 |
| Injuries | −0.49 | −18.4 |