luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Baltimore Ravens, 2022: game by game

The Ravens went 10–7 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.

Every game

How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Jets W 24–9 69% +31
Week 2 vs Dolphins L 38–42 54% −54
Week 3 @ Patriots W 37–26 68% +32
Week 4 vs Bills L 20–23 39% −39
Week 5 vs Bengals W 19–17 40% +60
Week 6 @ Giants L 20–24 67% −67
Week 7 vs Browns W 23–20 52% +48
Week 8 @ Buccaneers W 27–22 79% +21
Week 9 @ Saints W 27–13 41% +59
Week 11 vs Panthers W 13–3 94% +6
Week 12 @ Jaguars L 27–28 80% −80
Week 13 vs Broncos W 10–9 60% +40
Week 14 @ Steelers W 16–14 28% +72
Week 15 @ Browns L 3–13 21% −21
Week 16 vs Falcons W 17–9 78% +22
Week 17 vs Steelers L 13–16 19% −19
Week 18 @ Bengals L 16–27 22% −22
Wild Card @ Bengals L 17–24 62% −62

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+8.5+0.50
Fumble bounces+7.9+0.46
Drops+2.0+0.12
3rd & 4th downs+1.1+0.07
Rest−0.4−0.02
Judgment calls−3.4−0.20
Injuries−24.5−1.44