luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 17, 2022

Ravens at Browns, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Ravens 13–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.5 points to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:22 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 3
Cleveland Browns 13

December 17, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +21 Browns about even · −21 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 BAL 26 CLE 14
  2. 2 BAL 17 CLE 13
  3. 3 BAL 10 CLE 13
  4. 4 BAL 23 CLE 28
  5. 5 BAL 10 CLE 17
  6. 6 BAL 0 CLE 10
  7. 7 BAL 3 CLE 16
  8. 8 BAL 3 CLE 17
  9. 9 BAL 7 CLE 26
  10. 10 BAL 7 CLE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 21% of them, Browns 79%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+1.9%
Ravens by 9–165.5%
Ravens by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Browns by 1–827.6%
Browns by 9–1622.8%
Browns by 17+28.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 47 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Tucker, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. York, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • C. York, 38 yds missed · 86% expected
  • C. York, 46 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 12 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:58 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +10% CLE BAL: Punt
4 Q2 12:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% BAL BAL: Punt
5 Q2 0:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
6 Q2 0:02 J. Tucker missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 42 of 51 from 45+ before +15% CLE BAL: Turnover
7 Q3 8:22 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% CLE BAL: Turnover
8 Q4 14:08 J. Tucker had a 50-yard field goal blockedKicks · 70% expected for him, 42 of 52 from 45+ before +6% CLE BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 5% · Browns 95%

Final margin
Browns by 10
Luck in points
1.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 21% · Browns 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Ravens · Browns

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