luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 17, 2022

Ravens at Browns, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Ravens 13–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 0:02 left): J. Tucker missed a 48-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 3
Cleveland Browns 13

December 17, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +14 Browns about even · −14 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 1, Browns win 9.

  1. 1 BAL 14 CLE 9
  2. 2 BAL 17 CLE 19
  3. 3 BAL 14 CLE 17
  4. 4 BAL 13 CLE 20
  5. 5 BAL 6 CLE 15
  6. 6 BAL 15 CLE 27
  7. 7 BAL 6 CLE 20
  8. 8 BAL 3 CLE 20
  9. 9 BAL 10 CLE 31
  10. 10 BAL 3 CLE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 14% of them, Browns 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+0.6%
Ravens by 9–163.4%
Ravens by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.3%
Browns by 1–826.8%
Browns by 9–1623.8%
Browns by 17+35.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 10, without the luck Browns by 9.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 47 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Tucker, 53 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. York, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 50 yds blocked · 69% expected
  • C. York, 38 yds missed · 87% expected
  • C. York, 46 yds missed · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 3 for 25 yards, Browns 3 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 11:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 12 yards +6% BAL +2.3 pts
Q2 0:27 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 7:30 Face Mask on the Ravens (Justin Houston), 15 yards +5% CLE +2.3 pts
Q3 1:37 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +4% BAL +1.6 pts
Q4 10:49 False Start on the Ravens (Justice Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 11:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 12 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 6:58 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +10% CLE BAL: Punt
4 Q2 14:15 C. York made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before +6% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 12:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q2 0:18 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +14% BAL BAL: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:02 The game turned hereJ. Tucker missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 42 of 51 from 45+ before +15% CLE BAL: Turnover
8 Q3 8:22 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% CLE BAL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Bell (CLE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Josh Bynes (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 4% · Browns 96%

Final margin
Browns by 10
Luck in points
0.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 14% · Browns 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Ravens · Browns

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