luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Bengals at Buccaneers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Buccaneers 34–23, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:14 left): Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

December 18, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +54 Bengals lucky · −54 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 CIN 38 TB 16
  2. 2 CIN 25 TB 10
  3. 3 CIN 20 TB 10
  4. 4 CIN 26 TB 20
  5. 5 CIN 26 TB 24
  6. 6 CIN 19 TB 21
  7. 7 CIN 24 TB 30
  8. 8 CIN 23 TB 33
  9. 9 CIN 16 TB 31
  10. 10 CIN 17 TB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 46% of them, Buccaneers 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+9.6%
Bengals by 9–1614.2%
Bengals by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.5%
Buccaneers by 1–821.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1615.8%
Buccaneers by 17+12.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 11, without the luck Buccaneers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 21 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 50 yds missed · 66% expected
  • E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • E. McPherson, 21 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 27 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:58 Illegal Blindside Block on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q1 0:03 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Germaine Pratt), 2 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.2 pts
Q2 11:06 False Start on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 10:49 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 11 yards, wiping out the play +3% CIN +2.0 pts
Q3 8:14 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% CIN +4.2 pts
Q3 7:27 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 6:19 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 12:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 15 yards +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 12:13 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% CIN +1.2 pts
Q4 9:18 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% TB +1.2 pts
Q4 2:32 Encroachment on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 7 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +1.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q2 8:03 R. Succop missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 17 of 27 from 45+ before +6% CIN TB: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:14 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 4281 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:06 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CIN TB: Turnover
5 Q3 2:40 The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:31 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CIN TB: Turnover
7 Q4 14:19 T. Higgins dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 69 catchable balls before this +6% TB CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:15 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Julio Jones (TB WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CIN TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hilton (CIN CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 46% · Buccaneers 54%

Final margin
Bengals by 11
Luck in points
12.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 46% · Buccaneers 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Bengals · Buccaneers

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