Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022
Steelers at Panthers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Panthers 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.7 points to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:10 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 13, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Steelers about even · −13 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 9, Panthers win 1.
- 1 PIT 30 CAR 3
- 2 PIT 24 CAR 3
- 3 PIT 30 CAR 13
- 4 PIT 24 CAR 10
- 5 PIT 35 CAR 23
- 6 PIT 20 CAR 10
- 7 PIT 17 CAR 10
- 8 PIT 27 CAR 22
- 9 PIT 9 CAR 7
- 10 PIT 10 CAR 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.26 | +0.05 | better by 0.22 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.13 | better by 0.12 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.03 | worse by 0.02 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.26 | +0.06 | worse by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 87% of them, Panthers 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 39.2% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 26.6% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 20.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 8.9% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 2.2% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Steelers by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 10.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 76% expected
- E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:43 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 1:10 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +14% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 14:19 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 10:12 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +13% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:58 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% PIT | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:03 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:21 | Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 | +8% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:52 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts
- Myles Jack (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 97% · Panthers 3%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 8
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 10.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 87% · Panthers 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · 
Steelers · 
Panthers
More from Week 15 2022
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 21–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- Colts at Vikings MIN 39–36 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 13–3 · replay 79% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 32–29 · replay 71% for the winner
- Falcons at Saints NO 21–18 · replay 67% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jaguars JAX 40–34 · replay 36% for the winner
- Lions at Jets DET 20–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Chiefs at Texans KC 30–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Eagles at Bears PHI 25–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at Broncos DEN 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Raiders LV 30–24 · replay 41% for the winner
- Bengals at Buccaneers CIN 34–23 · replay 47% for the winner
- Titans at Chargers LAC 17–14 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders NYG 20–12 · replay 47% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 24–12 · replay 99% for the winner