luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · December 15, 2022–December 19

Week 15 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Cowboys 40–34 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 20–12 @ Commanders 37% 64% Deserved
Jaguars 40–34 vs Cowboys 38% 36% Lucky
Steelers 24–16 @ Panthers 43% 81% Deserved
Lions 20–17 @ Jets 44% 64% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Raiders W 30–24 vs Patriots 28% +72
2 Jaguars W 40–34 vs Cowboys 36% +64
3 Bengals W 34–23 @ Buccaneers 46% +54
4 Giants W 20–12 @ Commanders 64% +36
5 Lions W 20–17 @ Jets 64% +36
6 Saints W 21–18 vs Falcons 79% +21
7 Steelers W 24–16 @ Panthers 81% +19
8 Bills W 32–29 vs Dolphins 81% +19
9 Eagles W 25–20 @ Bears 84% +16
10 Browns W 13–3 vs Ravens 86% +14
11 Broncos W 24–15 vs Cardinals 87% +13
12 49ers W 21–13 @ Seahawks 88% +12
13 Chargers W 17–14 vs Titans 89% +11
14 Vikings W 39–36 vs Colts 93% +7
15 Chiefs W 30–24 @ Texans 99% +1
16 Packers W 24–12 vs Rams 99% +1
17 Rams L 12–24 @ Packers 1% −1
18 Texans L 24–30 vs Chiefs 1% −1
19 Colts L 36–39 @ Vikings 7% −7
20 Titans L 14–17 @ Chargers 11% −11
21 Seahawks L 13–21 vs 49ers 12% −12
22 Cardinals L 15–24 @ Broncos 13% −13
23 Ravens L 3–13 @ Browns 14% −14
24 Bears L 20–25 vs Eagles 16% −16
25 Dolphins L 29–32 @ Bills 19% −19
26 Panthers L 16–24 vs Steelers 19% −19
27 Falcons L 18–21 @ Saints 21% −21
28 Jets L 17–20 vs Lions 36% −36
29 Commanders L 12–20 vs Giants 36% −36
30 Buccaneers L 23–34 vs Bengals 54% −54
31 Cowboys L 34–40 @ Jaguars 64% −64
32 Patriots L 24–30 @ Raiders 72% −72