Raiders unlucky 16 
Rams lucky 17 Replays favor loser · Rams win 31% of replays 2022 NFL season · December 8, 2022–December 12
Week 14 2022: who deserved to win
2 of 13 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Raiders 17–16 in a game they win 31% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Raiders unlucky 16 Rams lucky 17 Replays favor loser · Rams win 31% of replays 
Ravens lucky 16 
Steelers unlucky 14 Replays favor loser · Ravens win 26% of replays 
Browns 10 
Bengals 23 Replays agree · Bengals win 92% of replays 
Texans 23 
Cowboys 27 Replays agree · Cowboys win 80% of replays 
Jaguars 36 
Titans 22 Replays agree · Jaguars win 92% of replays Off day for the Titans 48% to win a fresh game, 8% with this day’s form: defense far below its usual level. 
Vikings 23 
Lions 34 Replays agree · Lions win 77% of replays 
Jets 12 
Bills 20 Replays agree · Bills win 98% of replays 
Eagles 48 
Giants 22 Replays agree · Eagles win 97% of replays 
Chiefs 34 
Broncos 28 Replays agree · Chiefs win 99% of replays 
Panthers 30 
Seahawks 24 Coin flip · Panthers win 55% of replays 
Buccaneers 7 
49ers 35 Replays agree · 49ers win 98% of replays 
Dolphins 17 
Chargers 23 Replays agree · Chargers win 87% of replays Off day for the Dolphins 54% to win a fresh game, 13% with this day’s form: offense far below its usual level. 
Patriots 27 
Cardinals 13 Replays agree · Patriots win 81% of replays Week 14 2022 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 17–16 vs Raiders | 32% | 31% | Lucky |
| Panthers | 30–24 @ Seahawks | 40% | 55% | Coin flip |
| Jaguars | 36–22 @ Titans | 41% | 92% | Deserved |
| Chargers | 23–17 vs Dolphins | 41% | 87% | Deserved |
| Ravens | 16–14 @ Steelers | 46% | 26% | Lucky |
Week 14 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens | W 16–14 @ Steelers | 26% | +74 |
| 2 | Rams | W 17–16 vs Raiders | 31% | +69 |
| 3 | Panthers | W 30–24 @ Seahawks | 55% | +45 |
| 4 | Lions | W 34–23 vs Vikings | 77% | +23 |
| 5 | Cowboys | W 27–23 vs Texans | 80% | +20 |
| 6 | Patriots | W 27–13 @ Cardinals | 81% | +19 |
| 7 | Chargers | W 23–17 vs Dolphins | 87% | +13 |
| 8 | Jaguars | W 36–22 @ Titans | 92% | +8 |
| 9 | Bengals | W 23–10 vs Browns | 92% | +8 |
| 10 | Eagles | W 48–22 @ Giants | 97% | +3 |
| 11 | Bills | W 20–12 vs Jets | 98% | +2 |
| 12 | 49ers | W 35–7 vs Buccaneers | 98% | +2 |
| 13 | Chiefs | W 34–28 @ Broncos | 99% | +1 |
| 14 | Broncos | L 28–34 vs Chiefs | 1% | −1 |
| 15 | Buccaneers | L 7–35 @ 49ers | 2% | −2 |
| 16 | Jets | L 12–20 @ Bills | 2% | −2 |
| 17 | Giants | L 22–48 vs Eagles | 3% | −3 |
| 18 | Browns | L 10–23 @ Bengals | 8% | −8 |
| 19 | Titans | L 22–36 vs Jaguars | 8% | −8 |
| 20 | Dolphins | L 17–23 @ Chargers | 13% | −13 |
| 21 | Cardinals | L 13–27 vs Patriots | 19% | −19 |
| 22 | Texans | L 23–27 @ Cowboys | 20% | −20 |
| 23 | Vikings | L 23–34 @ Lions | 23% | −23 |
| 24 | Seahawks | L 24–30 vs Panthers | 45% | −45 |
| 25 | Raiders | L 16–17 @ Rams | 69% | −69 |
| 26 | Steelers | L 14–16 vs Ravens | 74% | −74 |