luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Eagles at Giants, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Giants 48–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:14 left): the Eagles converted 4th & 7, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 48
New York Giants 22

December 11, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −7.5

Luck index +7 Eagles about even · −7 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 44 NYG 9
  2. 2 PHI 27 NYG 0
  3. 3 PHI 39 NYG 17
  4. 4 PHI 37 NYG 17
  5. 5 PHI 36 NYG 20
  6. 6 PHI 29 NYG 16
  7. 7 PHI 27 NYG 17
  8. 8 PHI 31 NYG 24
  9. 9 PHI 37 NYG 34
  10. 10 PHI 26 NYG 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 93% of them, Giants 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+61.4%
Eagles by 9–1620.5%
Eagles by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation0.9%
Giants by 1–84.3%
Giants by 9–161.6%
Giants by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 39 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:08 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:19 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2676 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +3% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:20 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:10 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:57 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:01 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% NYG PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:14 The Eagles converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 4:38 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% NYG PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lawrence Cager (NYG TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 26
Luck in points
7.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 93% · Giants 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Eagles · Giants

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