luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Browns at Bengals, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Browns 23–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:54 left): Roughing the Kicker on the Browns (Tony Fields), 15 yards, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Cincinnati Bengals 23

December 11, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −4.5

Luck index +8 Bengals about even · −8 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Bengals win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 30 CIN 24
  2. 2 CLE 24 CIN 26
  3. 3 CLE 14 CIN 19
  4. 4 CLE 17 CIN 24
  5. 5 CLE 27 CIN 37
  6. 6 CLE 17 CIN 31
  7. 7 CLE 12 CIN 31
  8. 8 CLE 20 CIN 41
  9. 9 CLE 10 CIN 36
  10. 10 CLE 3 CIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 8% of them, Bengals 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.4%
Browns by 9–161.9%
Browns by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation0.7%
Bengals by 1–815.2%
Bengals by 9–1621.4%
Bengals by 17+54.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedS. Perine dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +9% CLE CIN: Punt
2 Q1 9:55 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +11% CIN CLE: Punt
3 Q2 13:27 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
4 Q2 12:54 Roughing the Kicker on the Browns (Tony Fields), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 11:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 3141 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:44 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:06 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CIN TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sione Takitaki (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 21% · Bengals 79%

Final margin
Bengals by 13
Luck in points
6.4 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Browns 8% · Bengals 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Browns · Bengals

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