luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Jets at Bills, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 4.7 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:42 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 12
Buffalo Bills 20

December 11, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +5 Bills about even · −5 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 17 BUF 20
  2. 2 NYJ 13 BUF 19
  3. 3 NYJ 13 BUF 23
  4. 4 NYJ 12 BUF 24
  5. 5 NYJ 6 BUF 20
  6. 6 NYJ 30 BUF 47
  7. 7 NYJ 10 BUF 30
  8. 8 NYJ 7 BUF 30
  9. 9 NYJ 7 BUF 34
  10. 10 NYJ 13 BUF 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 5% of them, Bills 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–160.7%
Jets by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Bills by 1–88.5%
Bills by 9–1619.1%
Bills by 17+67.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 12.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • T. Bass, 49 yds made · 68% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:20 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 2:42 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedI. McKenzie dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 41 catchable balls before this +10% NYJ BUF: Punt
3 Q2 14:19 The Bills converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% BUF BUF: Punt
4 Q2 7:35 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 5:42 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 4:29 The Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q2 1:17 Encroachment on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2173 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:55 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Rhodes (BUF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 3% · Bills 97%

Final margin
Bills by 8
Luck in points
4.2 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 12.2
Replay with same day's form
Jets 5% · Bills 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Jets · Bills

More from Week 14 2022