Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022
Dolphins at Chargers, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Dolphins 23–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Dolphins: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:02 left): the Chargers were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 17 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Chargers about even · −13 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 1, Chargers win 9.
- 1 MIA 20 LAC 13
- 2 MIA 17 LAC 19
- 3 MIA 17 LAC 20
- 4 MIA 13 LAC 20
- 5 MIA 13 LAC 22
- 6 MIA 13 LAC 24
- 7 MIA 10 LAC 24
- 8 MIA 16 LAC 34
- 9 MIA 16 LAC 37
- 10 MIA 6 LAC 38
Your call
Did the Chargers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Dolphins
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | −0.08 | +0.13 | worse by 0.21 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.08 | better by 0.04 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.12 | worse by 0.07 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.08 | +0.14 | better by 0.22 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 13% of them, Chargers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 25.4% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 39.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- J. Sanders, 55 yds made · 66% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 50 yards, Chargers 6 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:47 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yards | +5% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q1 3:15 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:45 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 10 yards | +2% MIA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Keion Crossen), 10 yards | +1% LAC +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:21 | False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% LAC +2.8 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards | +2% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:26 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:40 | Illegal Contact on the Chargers, 5 yards | 0% MIA +0.4 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:47 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +5% LAC | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 10:48 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +8% LAC | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 6:02 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +10% MIA | LAC: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 5:20 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 5:42 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +5% MIA | MIA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 1:24 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +6% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:15 | Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1227 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 | +7% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:26 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MIA | LAC: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
- Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
- Bryce Callahan (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
- J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Noah Igbinoghene (MIA CB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 41% · Chargers 59%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.0 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 13% · Chargers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · 
Dolphins · 
Chargers
More from Week 14 2022
- Raiders at Rams LA 17–16 · replay 31% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 16–14 · replay 26% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 23–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys DAL 27–23 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 36–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 34–23 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 20–12 · replay 98% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 48–22 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 34–28 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Seahawks CAR 30–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Buccaneers at 49ers SF 35–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals NE 27–13 · replay 81% for the winner