luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Dolphins at Chargers, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Dolphins 23–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:31 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
Los Angeles Chargers 23

December 11, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +25 Chargers about even · −25 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 30 LAC 17
  2. 2 MIA 23 LAC 20
  3. 3 MIA 7 LAC 9
  4. 4 MIA 30 LAC 34
  5. 5 MIA 9 LAC 16
  6. 6 MIA 10 LAC 20
  7. 7 MIA 10 LAC 23
  8. 8 MIA 7 LAC 23
  9. 9 MIA 17 LAC 36
  10. 10 MIA 10 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 24% of them, Chargers 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.0%
Dolphins by 9–166.9%
Dolphins by 1–813.6%
Level after regulation4.2%
Chargers by 1–826.0%
Chargers by 9–1621.9%
Chargers by 17+24.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 55 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:48 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 6:02 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% MIA LAC: Field goal
3 Q1 5:20 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% MIA MIA: Punt
4 Q2 1:24 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q3 11:15 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1227 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% LAC LAC: Punt
6 Q3 6:31 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +14% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q3 4:26 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% MIA LAC: Field goal
8 Q3 2:21 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% LAC MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (LAC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Igbinoghene (MIA CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 57% · Chargers 43%

Final margin
Chargers by 6
Luck in points
7.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 24% · Chargers 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Dolphins · Chargers

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