2022 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2022: game by game
The Dolphins went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.1.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Patriots | W 20–7 | 60% | +41 |
| Week 2 | @ Ravens | W 42–38 | 44% | +56 |
| Week 3 | vs Bills | W 21–19 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 4 | @ Bengals | L 15–27 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 5 | @ Jets | L 17–40 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 6 | vs Vikings | L 16–24 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 7 | vs Steelers | W 16–10 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 8 | @ Lions | W 31–27 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 9 | @ Bears | W 35–32 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | W 39–17 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 12 | vs Texans | W 30–15 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 13 | @ 49ers | L 17–33 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 14 | @ Chargers | L 17–23 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 15 | @ Bills | L 29–32 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 16 | vs Packers | L 20–26 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 17 | @ Patriots | L 21–23 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 18 | vs Jets | W 11–6 | 65% | +35 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 31–34 | 6% | −6 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.19 | −3.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.21 | −1.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.24 | −6.1 |
| Kicks | −0.28 | −8.2 |
| Drops | −0.52 | −20.4 |
| Injuries | −0.59 | −21.9 |