One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer
The Dolphins in one-score games
The Dolphins are 1–3 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 4–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.8 of those 4. Since 2019: 31–27 in 58 one-score games, 26.1 wins in replays.
A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.
Close-game luck by season
One-score wins minus how many of those games the Dolphins win in replays (regular season).
2026 one-score games
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 4 | @ Vikings | L 10–15 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 5 | vs Bengals | L 24–31 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 7 | @ Jets | W 28–25 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | vs Patriots | L 19–24 | 58% | −58 |
Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Miami Dolphins, every season