2025 season · final

Miami Dolphins, 2025: game by game

The Dolphins went 7–10 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–3.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Colts	L 8–33	6%	−6
Week 2	vs Patriots	L 27–33	56%	−56
Week 3	@ Bills	L 21–31	11%	−11
Week 4	vs Jets	W 27–21	29%	+71
Week 5	@ Panthers	L 24–27	38%	−38
Week 6	vs Chargers	L 27–29	27%	−27
Week 7	@ Browns	L 6–31	21%	−21
Week 8	@ Falcons	W 34–10	78%	+22
Week 9	vs Ravens	L 6–28	5%	−5
Week 10	vs Bills	W 30–13	58%	+42
Week 11	vs Commanders	W 16–13	57%	+43
Week 13	vs Saints	W 21–17	72%	+28
Week 14	@ Jets	W 34–10	97%	+3
Week 15	@ Steelers	L 15–28	38%	−38
Week 16	vs Bengals	L 21–45	8%	−8
Week 17	vs Buccaneers	W 20–17	64%	+36
Week 18	@ Patriots	L 10–38	0%	0

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −6 @ IND

Wk 2 −56 vs NE

Wk 3 −11 @ BUF

Wk 4 +71 vs NYJ

Wk 5 −38 @ CAR

Wk 6 −27 vs LAC

Wk 7 −21 @ CLE

Wk 8 +22 @ ATL

Wk 9 −5 vs BAL

Wk 10 +42 vs BUF

Wk 11 +43 vs WAS

Wk 13 +28 vs NO

Wk 14 +3 @ NYJ

Wk 15 −38 @ PIT

Wk 16 −8 vs CIN

Wk 17 +36 vs TB

Wk 18 0 @ NE

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.77	+12.4
Fumble bounces	+0.35	+16.9
Rest	+0.06	+2.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.09	−3.5
Injuries	−0.16	−8.7
Drops	−0.27	−11.7
Judgment calls	−0.45	−7.4