luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Patriots at Dolphins, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 33–27, but the Dolphins played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.4 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:18 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 30 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 33
Miami Dolphins 27

September 14, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −1.5

Luck index +72 Patriots very lucky · −72 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 3, Dolphins win 7.

  1. 1 NE 23 MIA 7
  2. 2 NE 24 MIA 16
  3. 3 NE 9 MIA 6
  4. 4 NE 24 MIA 27
  5. 5 NE 23 MIA 27
  6. 6 NE 13 MIA 20
  7. 7 NE 21 MIA 30
  8. 8 NE 20 MIA 33
  9. 9 NE 7 MIA 23
  10. 10 NE 7 MIA 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 28% of them, Dolphins 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+2.7%
Patriots by 9–167.2%
Patriots by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation4.0%
Dolphins by 1–826.7%
Dolphins by 9–1623.4%
Dolphins by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 3.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Patterson, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Patterson, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Borregales, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:30 The Patriots converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +13% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q3 14:07 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +18% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q3 1:49 The Patriots converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +18% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% NE NE: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 7:39 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +26% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 7:18 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +30% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:21 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +28% NE MIA: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:53 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Liam Eichenberg (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Storm Duck (MIA CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Benito Jones (MIA DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Gonzalez (NE CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Keion White (NE DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Layden Robinson (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jahlani Tavai (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 70% · Dolphins 30%

Final margin
Patriots by 6
Luck in points
2.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 28% · Dolphins 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Patriots · Dolphins

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