luckadjusted

Week 2 2025 · September 15, 2025

Chargers at Raiders, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 20–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.9 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:05 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Las Vegas Raiders 9

September 15, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +25 Chargers lucky · −25 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 LAC 28 LV 3
  2. 2 LAC 31 LV 13
  3. 3 LAC 17 LV 3
  4. 4 LAC 24 LV 13
  5. 5 LAC 20 LV 13
  6. 6 LAC 18 LV 14
  7. 7 LAC 13 LV 10
  8. 8 LAC 10 LV 13
  9. 9 LAC 6 LV 13
  10. 10 LAC 17 LV 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 75% of them, Raiders 25%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+23.1%
Chargers by 9–1622.4%
Chargers by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation5.1%
Raiders by 1–814.3%
Raiders by 9–166.4%
Raiders by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 38 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 71% expected
  • D. Carlson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Dicker, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q1 10:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Cam Hart), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 660 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q1 9:53 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% LAC LV: Field goal
4 Q1 9:07 D. Carlson made 54-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 52 of 69 from 45+ before +8% LV LV: Punt
5 Q2 14:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q2 5:21 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% LAC LV: Punt
7 Q2 1:14 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% LAC LV: Field goal
8 Q4 6:05 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% LAC LV: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Elijah Molden (LAC CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Harris (LAC LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 97% · Raiders 3%

Final margin
Chargers by 11
Luck in points
1.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 75% · Raiders 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Chargers · Raiders

More from Week 2 2025