luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 14, 2025

Browns at Ravens, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 41–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:08 left): the Browns converted 4th & 3, worth 8 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 17
Baltimore Ravens 41

September 14, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −12.5

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 23 BAL 25
  2. 2 CLE 20 BAL 25
  3. 3 CLE 13 BAL 22
  4. 4 CLE 10 BAL 21
  5. 5 CLE 6 BAL 20
  6. 6 CLE 7 BAL 24
  7. 7 CLE 13 BAL 33
  8. 8 CLE 14 BAL 38
  9. 9 CLE 6 BAL 34
  10. 10 CLE 6 BAL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 5% of them, Ravens 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.2%
Browns by 9–160.4%
Browns by 1–83.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Ravens by 1–89.0%
Ravens by 9–1620.3%
Ravens by 17+65.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 24, without the luck Ravens by 16.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • T. Loop, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 42 yards, Ravens 6 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:30 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.1 pts
Q1 3:06 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q1 0:45 Encroachment on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q2 2:00 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.2 pts
Q3 13:16 False Start on the Ravens (Zaire Mitchell-Paden), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q3 12:26 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Ravens (Tyler Loop), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q3 4:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Tylan Wallace), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 4:32 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Myles Harden), 5 yards +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 13:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards +2% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 12:13 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% BAL +1.2 pts
Q4 6:22 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.3 pts
Q4 5:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Cameron Mitchell), 12 yards 0% BAL +1.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:03 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q1 7:01 C. Tillman dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 59 catchable balls before this +7% BAL CLE: Punt
3 Q2 12:12 Blocked punt by the RavensSpecial teams +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:06 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:09 The Browns converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q2 0:43 J. Ford dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 98 catchable balls before this +4% BAL CLE: Field goal
7 Q3 5:08 The Browns converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedThe Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:21 The Ravens converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Likely (BAL TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 24
Luck in points
7.1 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 5% · Ravens 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Browns · Ravens

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