2025 season · final
Cleveland Browns, 2025: game by game
The Browns went 5–12 in 2025; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.0 wins. Luck added 1.0: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6.
Every game
How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bengals | L 16–17 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 2 | @ Ravens | L 17–41 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 3 | vs Packers | W 13–10 | 17% | +83 |
| Week 4 | @ Lions | L 10–34 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 5 | vs Vikings | L 17–21 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 6 | @ Steelers | L 9–23 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 7 | vs Dolphins | W 31–6 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 8 | @ Patriots | L 13–32 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 10 | @ Jets | L 20–27 | 52% | −52 |
| Week 11 | vs Ravens | L 16–23 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 12 | @ Raiders | W 24–10 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 13 | vs 49ers | L 8–26 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 14 | vs Titans | L 29–31 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 15 | @ Bears | L 3–31 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 16 | vs Bills | L 20–23 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 17 | vs Steelers | W 13–6 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 18 | @ Bengals | W 20–18 | 2% | +98 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.90 | +13.6 |
| Drops | +0.22 | +2.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.06 | +2.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.03 | −12.2 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.4 |
| Injuries | −0.14 | −6.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.21 | −3.3 |