luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Packers at Browns, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the Packers 13–10, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.3 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Packers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:18 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 38 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Green Bay Packers 10
Cleveland Browns 13

September 21, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Packers −8.5

Luck index +82 Browns very lucky · −82 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 GB 22 CLE 0
  2. 2 GB 27 CLE 10
  3. 3 GB 20 CLE 7
  4. 4 GB 17 CLE 7
  5. 5 GB 16 CLE 7
  6. 6 GB 23 CLE 17
  7. 7 GB 21 CLE 17
  8. 8 GB 25 CLE 23
  9. 9 GB 10 CLE 13
  10. 10 GB 13 CLE 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 82% of them, Browns 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+29.4%
Packers by 9–1621.7%
Packers by 1–830.4%
Level after regulation1.7%
Browns by 1–810.9%
Browns by 9–164.9%
Browns by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 7.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds blocked · 82% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 55 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% GB GB: End of half
2 Q4 12:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Cedric Tillman), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +15% GB GB: Punt
3 Q4 3:18 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +38% CLE GB: Missed field goal
4 Q4 2:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Myles Harden), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 166 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +10% GB GB: Missed field goal
5 Q4 1:12 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Packers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% CLE GB: Missed field goal
6 Q4 0:27 B. McManus had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 82% expected for him +33% CLE –
7 Q4 0:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +12% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 A. Szmyt made 55-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +21% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cameron Mitchell (CLE CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 24% · Browns 76%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
4.5 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Packers 82% · Browns 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Packers · Browns

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