Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025
Jets at Buccaneers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Jets 29–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 39 points of win probability to the Jets.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): C. McLaughlin had a 43-yard field goal blocked, worth 45 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 New York Jets | 27 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Buccaneers about even · −25 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 2, Buccaneers win 8.
- 1 NYJ 31 TB 17
- 2 NYJ 23 TB 19
- 3 NYJ 26 TB 28
- 4 NYJ 10 TB 15
- 5 NYJ 6 TB 13
- 6 NYJ 10 TB 20
- 7 NYJ 16 TB 28
- 8 NYJ 17 TB 34
- 9 NYJ 13 TB 34
- 10 NYJ 9 TB 36
Your call
Did the Buccaneers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 25% of them, Buccaneers 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 3.2% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 12.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 26.3% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 28.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- N. Folk, 38 yds made · 93% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 69% expected
- N. Folk, 42 yds made · 88% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 68% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 43 yds blocked · 85% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: Jets 7 for 81 yards, Buccaneers 14 for 124 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:11 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Logan Hall), 15 yards | +5% NYJ +1.7 pts |
| Q1 10:31 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 4 yards | +3% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q1 9:50 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% TB +1.4 pts |
| Q1 8:27 | Face Mask on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards | +2% TB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 8:09 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ryan Miller), 10 yards | +2% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:06 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +3% NYJ +1.5 pts |
| Q1 5:59 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q1 5:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 26 yards | +14% TB +3.3 pts |
| Q1 3:57 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NYJ +2.7 pts |
| Q1 3:27 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% NYJ +3.1 pts |
| Q1 0:50 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +3% TB +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:18 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% NYJ +2.5 pts |
| Q2 7:40 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 5:41 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:52 | Face Mask on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 15 yards | +2% TB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:23 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards | +1% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:51 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TB +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:26 | False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q4 5:22 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NYJ +5.3 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.3 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:59 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 16 flags in 5725 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +7% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 5:30 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3280 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +14% TB | TB: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:57 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 3:27 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 12:16 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +10% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:28 | The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams | +16% TB | NYJ: End of half |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | C. McLaughlin had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 85% expected for himDelay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +45% NYJ | TB: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | C. McLaughlin made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him | +7% TB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
- Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tony Adams (NYJ S), out · 0.3 pts
- Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 15% · Buccaneers 85%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 2
- Luck in points
- 8.6 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Buccaneers by 10.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 25% · Buccaneers 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · 
Jets · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 3 2025
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 31–21 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 30–0 · replay 71% for the winner
- Bengals at Vikings MIN 48–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Browns CLE 13–10 · replay 17% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars JAX 17–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 41–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Rams at Eagles PHI 33–26 · replay 14% for the winner
- Raiders at Commanders WAS 41–24 · replay 90% for the winner
- Steelers at Patriots PIT 21–14 · replay 62% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 23–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks SEA 44–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 16–15 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bears CHI 31–14 · replay 50% for the winner
- Chiefs at Giants KC 22–9 · replay 65% for the winner
- Lions at Ravens DET 38–30 · replay 76% for the winner