luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Raiders at Commanders, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Raiders 41–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Commanders win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 57% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 24
Washington Commanders 41

September 21, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −2.5

Luck index +10 Commanders about even · −10 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Commanders win 9.

  1. 1 LV 23 WAS 16
  2. 2 LV 21 WAS 24
  3. 3 LV 12 WAS 17
  4. 4 LV 20 WAS 28
  5. 5 LV 3 WAS 14
  6. 6 LV 7 WAS 21
  7. 7 LV 16 WAS 34
  8. 8 LV 6 WAS 26
  9. 9 LV 10 WAS 35
  10. 10 LV 6 WAS 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 10% of them, Commanders 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.7%
Raiders by 9–162.7%
Raiders by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Commanders by 1–816.3%
Commanders by 9–1620.9%
Commanders by 17+52.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Commanders by 17, without the luck Commanders by 21.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Gay, 37 yds missed · 91% expected
  • M. Gay, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Gay, 56 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 6 for 54 yards, Commanders 7 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:51 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Matt Gay), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q1 9:49 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q1 5:23 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +3% LV +1.5 pts
Q1 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Isaiah Pola-Mao), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.8 pts
Q1 0:27 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 10 yards +3% LV +0.8 pts
Q2 12:11 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% LV +1.9 pts
Q2 11:05 False Start on the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 6:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +1.4 pts
Q2 0:14 Face Mask on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 16 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAS +1.5 pts
Q3 12:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 9 yards +3% LV +1.2 pts
Q3 9:54 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 8 yards +1% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 2:18 Illegal Shift on the Raiders (Tre Tucker), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 7:00 Intentional Grounding on the Commanders (Marcus Mariota), 10 yards 0% LV +0.9 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:02 The Commanders fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LV WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Isaiah Pola-Mao), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1936 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +4% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
3 Q1 1:29 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% LV WAS: Missed field goal
4 Q1 1:25 M. Gay missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +5% LV WAS: Field goal
5 Q2 10:00 M. Gay made a 46-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 50 of 74 from 45+ before +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:50 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:14 Face Mask on the Raiders (Malcolm Koonce), 16 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1241 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +5% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q3 9:54 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 33 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213Return touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +7% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 3.5 pts
  • Brandon Coleman (WAS T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Decamerion Richardson (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Commanders 100%

Final margin
Commanders by 17
Luck in points
4.0 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 21.0
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 10% · Commanders 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Raiders · Commanders

More from Week 3 2025