luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Texans at Jaguars, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 17–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:00 left): Leverage on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Houston Texans 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

September 21, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1.5

Luck index +17 Jaguars about even · −17 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Jaguars win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 27 JAX 16
  2. 2 HOU 23 JAX 20
  3. 3 HOU 38 JAX 40
  4. 4 HOU 17 JAX 22
  5. 5 HOU 13 JAX 20
  6. 6 HOU 7 JAX 17
  7. 7 HOU 16 JAX 29
  8. 8 HOU 13 JAX 30
  9. 9 HOU 13 JAX 34
  10. 10 HOU 7 JAX 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 17% of them, Jaguars 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.7%
Texans by 9–165.0%
Texans by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation1.3%
Jaguars by 1–824.6%
Jaguars by 9–1620.6%
Jaguars by 17+36.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was Jaguars by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds missed · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Little, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 7 for 66 yards, Jaguars 9 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:10 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 2:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 11 yards +5% JAX +2.5 pts
Q1 0:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Ventrell Miller), 10 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 0:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Danielle Hunter), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.5 pts
Q2 14:55 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:46 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.2 pts
Q2 10:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Eric Murray), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 8:33 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dennis Gardeck), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q2 3:40 False Start on the Jaguars (Johnny Mundt), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 3:22 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Dyami Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Texans (Dalton Schultz), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.4 pts
Q3 13:50 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 9:56 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 8:00 Leverage on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards +10% JAX +2.3 pts
Q3 6:18 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yards +2% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 0:57 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.5 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:45 K. Fairbairn missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 50 of 69 from 45+ before +8% JAX HOU: Punt
2 Q2 11:46 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q2 3:22 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Dyami Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q3 8:00 Leverage on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 3284 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q4 12:25 B. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 111 catchable balls before this +7% HOU JAX: Punt
6 Q4 3:58 The Texans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX HOU: Turnover
7 Q4 3:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:27 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +8% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Blake Fisher (HOU T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 4% · Jaguars 96%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
1.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 17% · Jaguars 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Texans · Jaguars

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