luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Texans at Jaguars, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 17–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 4.9 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 21 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Houston Texans 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

September 21, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1.5

Luck index +18 Jaguars about even · −18 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Jaguars win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 26 JAX 13
  2. 2 HOU 27 JAX 23
  3. 3 HOU 23 JAX 25
  4. 4 HOU 21 JAX 26
  5. 5 HOU 3 JAX 12
  6. 6 HOU 21 JAX 32
  7. 7 HOU 3 JAX 17
  8. 8 HOU 13 JAX 32
  9. 9 HOU 7 JAX 30
  10. 10 HOU 3 JAX 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 18% of them, Jaguars 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.8%
Texans by 9–164.6%
Texans by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation1.2%
Jaguars by 1–823.4%
Jaguars by 9–1621.7%
Jaguars by 17+35.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 5.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Little, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:45 K. Fairbairn missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 50 of 69 from 45+ before +8% JAX HOU: Punt
2 Q2 3:22 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars (Dyami Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q3 8:00 Leverage on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 23 flags in 3284 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q4 12:25 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 111 catchable balls before this +9% HOU JAX: Punt
5 Q4 9:33 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% HOU JAX: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:58 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% JAX HOU: Turnover
7 Q4 3:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:27 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +21% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Blake Fisher (HOU T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Mixon (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kurt Hinish (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cade Stover (HOU TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 15% · Jaguars 85%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
1.8 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 18% · Jaguars 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Texans · Jaguars

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