luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Falcons at Panthers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 30–0, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9.3 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:18 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 0
Carolina Panthers 30

September 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −5.5

Luck index +50 Panthers lucky · −50 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 23 CAR 3
  2. 2 ATL 26 CAR 14
  3. 3 ATL 22 CAR 13
  4. 4 ATL 31 CAR 26
  5. 5 ATL 6 CAR 3
  6. 6 ATL 3 CAR 6
  7. 7 ATL 7 CAR 12
  8. 8 ATL 14 CAR 22
  9. 9 ATL 3 CAR 16
  10. 10 ATL 3 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 50% of them, Panthers 50%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+8.4%
Falcons by 9–1615.0%
Falcons by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation6.1%
Panthers by 1–823.4%
Panthers by 9–1614.8%
Panthers by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 30. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 20.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Romo, 55 yds missed · 64% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 57 yds made · 61% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:16 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:54 J. Romo missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +8% CAR ATL: Punt
3 Q1 8:18 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:18 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% CAR ATL: Punt
5 Q1 5:14 The Panthers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q1 3:33 J. Romo missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +5% CAR ATL: Punt
7 Q2 0:37 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ATL ATL: End of half
8 Q3 11:46 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +9% CAR ATL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Xavier Legette (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Panthers 100%

Final margin
Panthers by 30
Luck in points
9.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 20.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 50% · Panthers 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Falcons · Panthers

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