luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Falcons at Panthers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 30–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:46 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 0
Carolina Panthers 30

September 21, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −5.5

Luck index +29 Panthers lucky · −29 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Panthers win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 30 CAR 13
  2. 2 ATL 31 CAR 24
  3. 3 ATL 20 CAR 17
  4. 4 ATL 17 CAR 19
  5. 5 ATL 13 CAR 16
  6. 6 ATL 6 CAR 13
  7. 7 ATL 10 CAR 19
  8. 8 ATL 7 CAR 19
  9. 9 ATL 24 CAR 39
  10. 10 ATL 7 CAR 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 29% of them, Panthers 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.4%
Falcons by 9–167.6%
Falcons by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation4.0%
Panthers by 1–827.4%
Panthers by 9–1623.8%
Panthers by 17+18.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.9 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 30, without the luck Panthers by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 49 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Romo, 55 yds missed · 65% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 23 yards, Panthers 6 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:18 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +1.1 pts
Q1 1:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q1 0:10 False Start on the Panthers (Akayleb Evans), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 5:53 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 1:22 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 11:46 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yards +2% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 7:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (DeAundre Alford), 13 yards +1% CAR +2.0 pts
Q3 5:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Falcons (Jalon Walker), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q4 6:30 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:16 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:54 J. Romo missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 3 of 3 from 45+ before +8% CAR ATL: Punt
3 Q1 8:18 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:18 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedDelay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% CAR ATL: Punt
5 Q1 5:14 The Panthers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q1 3:33 J. Romo missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before +5% CAR ATL: Punt
7 Q2 0:37 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +5% ATL ATL: End of half
8 Q3 11:46 The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +9% CAR ATL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Xavier Legette (CAR WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Panthers 100%

Final margin
Panthers by 30
Luck in points
9.9 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 29% · Panthers 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Falcons · Panthers

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