NFC South
Carolina Panthers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Panthers have won 37 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 36.4. Luck added 0.6 wins. Their luckiest season was 2024 (+2.1 wins), the unluckiest 2020 (−3.4).
2026: 3–5 so far, replay wins 4.7 (−1.7 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3–5 | 4.7 | −1.7 | 1–3 | −0.89 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 7–3 | −0.01 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 5–12 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 4–3 | +0.63 | – |
| 2023 | 2–15 | 3.1 | −1.1 | 2–6 | +0.27 | – |
| 2022 | 7–10 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 3–5 | −0.04 | – |
| 2021 | 5–12 | 5.8 | −0.8 | 2–6 | −0.20 | – |
| 2020 | 5–11 | 8.4 | −3.4 | 3–8 | +0.04 | – |
| 2019 | 5–11 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 2–6 | +1.12 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +1.1 | −0.56 | +0.22 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.01 |
| 2024 | +2.1 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.55 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.12 |
| 2023 | −1.1 | −0.20 | −0.66 | −0.28 | +0.14 | +0.06 | +0.12 |
| 2022 | +1.5 | +0.35 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 |
| 2021 | −0.8 | −0.26 | +0.53 | 0.00 | −0.10 | +0.29 | −0.16 |
| 2020 | −3.4 | +1.05 | −1.35 | 0.00 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.31 |
| 2019 | +1.0 | −0.38 | +0.28 | 0.00 | +0.56 | −0.10 | −0.20 |
| Since 2019 | +0.6 | −0.13 | −1.47 | −1.36 | +0.91 | +0.19 | −0.83 |
Are the Panthers lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Panthers have won 37 regular-season games from play worth 36.4: +0.6 wins of luck, the 14th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Panthers been so lucky?
Most of it came from judgment calls (+0.9 wins) and injuries (+0.2 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 23–37 since 2019, where the replays give them 21.6 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Panthers’ luckiest season?
2024: 5–12 from play worth 2.9 wins, +2.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2020: 5–11 from play worth 8.4 (−3.4).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Panthers’ luckiest wins
Wins the Panthers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
The Panthers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Panthers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Browns | L 18–21 | 92% | −92 |
| 2020 Week 6 | vs Bears | L 16–23 | 80% | −80 |
| 2020 Week 12 | @ Vikings | L 27–28 | 67% | −67 |
| 2020 Week 8 | vs Falcons | L 17–25 | 63% | −63 |
| 2020 Week 7 | @ Saints | L 24–27 | 57% | −57 |
