One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Panthers in one-score games

The Panthers are 1–3 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 7–3 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.5 of those 4. Since 2019: 24–40 in 64 one-score games, 24.2 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Panthers win in replays (regular season).

2026 −1.5 1–3

2025 +2.2 7–3

2024 +2.4 4–3

2023 0.0 2–6

2022 +0.6 3–5

2021 −1.0 2–6

2020 −3.0 3–8

2019 +0.3 2–6

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–3	2.5 of 4	−1.5	3–5
2025	7–3	4.8 of 10	+2.2	8–9
2024	4–3	1.6 of 7	+2.4	5–12
2023	2–6	2.0 of 8	0.0	2–15
2022	3–5	2.4 of 8	+0.6	7–10
2021	2–6	3.0 of 8	−1.0	5–12
2020	3–8	6.0 of 11	−3.0	5–11
2019	2–6	1.7 of 8	+0.3	5–11

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 3	@ Browns	L 18–21	92%	−92
Week 4	vs Lions	W 32–26	67%	+33
Week 8	@ Packers	L 19–27	46%	−46
Week 9	vs Broncos	L 21–26	49%	−49

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Carolina Panthers, every season