luckadjusted

2026 NFL season · after Week 3 · decided by 8 points or fewer

One-score games, 2026

The Eagles are 2–0 in one-score games so far; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.1 of those 2, the most close-game luck in the league. The Ravens are 0–1, from play worth 0.9 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Buccaneers would lead the league at 2–0.

Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.

TeamOne-score recordReplay wins in thoseClose-game luckRecordIf they flipped
Eagles 2–01.1 of 2+0.9 2–00–2
Vikings 1–00.5 of 1+0.5 2–01–1
Giants 1–00.1 of 1+0.9 1–10–2
Chiefs 1–00.5 of 1+0.5 2–01–1
Bengals 1–01.0 of 10.0 2–01–1
Browns 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 1–10–2
Lions 1–00.4 of 1+0.6 1–10–2
Seahawks 1–00.8 of 1+0.2 2–01–1
Broncos 1–00.6 of 1+0.4 1–10–2
Steelers 1–00.7 of 1+0.3 1–10–2
Bills 1–00.9 of 1+0.1 2–01–1
Packers 1–00.3 of 1+0.7 1–20–3
Saints 1–10.7 of 2+0.3 1–11–1
Buccaneers 0–20.6 of 2−0.6 0–22–0
Patriots 0–10.2 of 1−0.2 1–12–0
Bears 0–10.5 of 1−0.5 1–12–0
Falcons 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 1–22–1
Jaguars 0–10.4 of 1−0.4 1–12–0
Titans 0–10.3 of 1−0.3 0–21–1
Jets 0–10.7 of 1−0.7 1–12–0
Colts 0–10.5 of 1−0.5 0–21–1
Texans 0–10.1 of 1−0.1 0–21–1
Cowboys 0–10.9 of 1−0.9 1–12–0
Ravens 0–10.9 of 1−0.9 1–12–0
Commanders 0–10.6 of 1−0.6 0–21–1
Raiders 0–00.0 of 00.0 2–02–0
Cardinals 0–00.0 of 00.0 1–11–1
49ers 0–00.0 of 00.0 2–02–0
Rams 0–00.0 of 00.0 1–11–1
Panthers 0–00.0 of 00.0 1–11–1
Dolphins 0–00.0 of 00.0 0–20–2
Chargers 0–00.0 of 00.0 0–20–2

Close-game luck

One-score wins minus how many of those games each team wins in replays. Right: the close ones broke their way.

2026 luck rankings · Expected wins · Referee calls