2026 NFL season · after Week 9 · decided by 8 points or fewer
One-score games, 2026
The Broncos are 6–0 in one-score games so far; replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.4 of those 6, the most close-game luck in the league. The Rams are 2–3, from play worth 4.1 wins. If every one-score game had gone the other way, the Buccaneers would lead the league at 8–1.
Close-game records look like clutch and rarely last: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s one-score win rate carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record.
| Team | One-score record | Replay wins in those | Close-game luck | Record | If they flipped |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Broncos | 6–0 | 2.4 of 6 | +3.6 | 7–2 | 1–8 |
 49ers | 3–0 | 2.8 of 3 | +0.2 | 7–1 | 4–4 |
 Vikings | 4–1 | 2.7 of 5 | +1.3 | 6–1 | 3–4 |
 Bills | 4–1 | 2.9 of 5 | +1.1 | 6–1 | 3–4 |
 Steelers | 4–1 | 3.6 of 5 | +0.4 | 6–2 | 3–5 |
 Lions | 4–1 | 3.5 of 5 | +0.5 | 6–2 | 3–5 |
 Giants | 4–1–1 | 3.4 of 6 | +1.1 | 5–2–1 | 2–5–1 |
 Packers | 3–1 | 1.9 of 4 | +1.1 | 6–3 | 4–5 |
 Bears | 3–1 | 2.3 of 4 | +0.7 | 7–2 | 5–4 |
 Browns | 5–2 | 3.3 of 7 | +1.7 | 5–4 | 2–7 |
 Chiefs | 2–1 | 1.8 of 3 | +0.2 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
 Cardinals | 2–1 | 0.8 of 3 | +1.2 | 3–6 | 2–7 |
 Bengals | 3–2 | 3.4 of 5 | −0.4 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
 Patriots | 3–2 | 2.6 of 5 | +0.4 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
 Ravens | 3–2 | 3.5 of 5 | −0.5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
 Saints | 3–3 | 2.7 of 6 | +0.3 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
 Raiders | 2–2 | 1.6 of 4 | +0.4 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
 Jaguars | 2–2 | 2.5 of 4 | −0.5 | 6–2 | 6–2 |
 Eagles | 2–3 | 1.7 of 5 | +0.3 | 2–7 | 3–6 |
 Seahawks | 2–3 | 3.1 of 5 | −1.1 | 5–4 | 6–3 |
 Rams | 2–3 | 4.1 of 5 | −2.1 | 5–4 | 6–3 |
 Cowboys | 2–4 | 3.9 of 6 | −1.9 | 4–5 | 6–3 |
 Commanders | 1–3–1 | 1.7 of 5 | −0.2 | 2–5–1 | 4–3–1 |
 Dolphins | 1–3 | 1.8 of 4 | −0.8 | 1–7 | 3–5 |
 Panthers | 1–3 | 2.5 of 4 | −1.5 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
 Colts | 1–4 | 1.4 of 5 | −0.4 | 2–7 | 5–4 |
 Texans | 1–4 | 2.0 of 5 | −1.0 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
 Titans | 1–5 | 1.6 of 6 | −0.6 | 1–7 | 5–3 |
 Jets | 1–5 | 2.7 of 6 | −1.7 | 2–7 | 6–3 |
 Buccaneers | 1–6 | 1.3 of 7 | −0.3 | 3–6 | 8–1 |
 Falcons | 0–3 | 0.6 of 3 | −0.6 | 3–6 | 6–3 |
 Chargers | 0–3 | 0.8 of 3 | −0.8 | 0–8 | 3–5 |
Close-game luck
One-score wins minus how many of those games each team wins in replays. Right: the close ones broke their way.