One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Jets in one-score games

The Jets are 1–5 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 2.7 of those 6. Since 2019: 26–38 in 64 one-score games, 25.0 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Jets win in replays (regular season).

2026 −1.7 1–5

2025 −0.4 3–5

2024 −1.9 3–7

2023 +1.3 4–4

2022 +0.5 4–6

2021 +0.4 4–5

2020 +0.3 2–4

2019 +2.5 5–2

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–5	2.7 of 6	−1.7	2–7
2025	3–5	3.4 of 8	−0.4	3–14
2024	3–7	4.9 of 10	−1.9	5–12
2023	4–4	2.7 of 8	+1.3	7–10
2022	4–6	3.5 of 10	+0.5	7–10
2021	4–5	3.6 of 9	+0.4	4–13
2020	2–4	1.7 of 6	+0.3	2–14
2019	5–2	2.5 of 7	+2.5	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Packers	L 17–20	64%	−64
Week 3	@ Lions	L 24–31	7%	−7
Week 5	vs Browns	W 17–12	85%	+15
Week 6	@ Patriots	L 19–26	45%	−45
Week 7	vs Dolphins	L 25–28	21%	−21
Week 8	vs Raiders	L 33–38	51%	−51

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New York Jets, every season