One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Jets in one-score games

The Jets are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.7 of those 1. Since 2019: 25–34 in 59 one-score games, 22.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Jets win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.7 0–1

2025 −0.4 3–5

2024 −1.7 3–7

2023 +1.7 4–4

2022 +0.6 4–6

2021 +0.4 4–5

2020 +0.2 2–4

2019 +2.5 5–2

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.7 of 1	−0.7	1–1
2025	3–5	3.4 of 8	−0.4	3–14
2024	3–7	4.7 of 10	−1.7	5–12
2023	4–4	2.3 of 8	+1.7	7–10
2022	4–6	3.4 of 10	+0.6	7–10
2021	4–5	3.6 of 9	+0.4	4–13
2020	2–4	1.8 of 6	+0.2	2–14
2019	5–2	2.5 of 7	+2.5	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 2	vs Packers	L 17–20	66%	−66

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · New York Jets, every season