2019 season · final
New York Jets, 2019: game by game
The Jets went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.
Every game
How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Bills | L 16–17 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 2 | vs Browns | L 3–23 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | L 14–30 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 5 | @ Eagles | L 6–31 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 6 | vs Cowboys | W 24–22 | 3% | +97 |
| Week 7 | vs Patriots | L 0–33 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 8 | @ Jaguars | L 15–29 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 9 | @ Dolphins | L 18–26 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 10 | vs Giants | W 34–27 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 11 | @ Washington | W 34–17 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 12 | vs Raiders | W 34–3 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 13 | @ Bengals | L 6–22 | 20% | −20 |
| Week 14 | vs Dolphins | W 22–21 | 51% | +49 |
| Week 15 | @ Ravens | L 21–42 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 16 | vs Steelers | W 16–10 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 17 | @ Bills | W 13–6 | 41% | +59 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.6 |
| Kicks | −0.06 | −11.7 |
| Judgment calls | −0.23 | −24.7 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.23 | −11.5 |
| Injuries | −0.28 | −12.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.67 | −20.1 |