luckadjusted

2019 season · final

New York Jets, 2019: game by game

The Jets went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Bills L 16–17 11% −11
Week 2 vs Browns L 3–23 2% −2
Week 3 @ Patriots L 14–30 1% −1
Week 5 @ Eagles L 6–31 1% −1
Week 6 vs Cowboys W 24–22 4% +96
Week 7 vs Patriots L 0–33 3% −3
Week 8 @ Jaguars L 15–29 11% −11
Week 9 @ Dolphins L 18–26 20% −20
Week 10 vs Giants W 34–27 77% +23
Week 11 @ Washington W 34–17 87% +13
Week 12 vs Raiders W 34–3 75% +25
Week 13 @ Bengals L 6–22 20% −20
Week 14 vs Dolphins W 22–21 51% +49
Week 15 @ Ravens L 21–42 2% −2
Week 16 vs Steelers W 16–10 51% +49
Week 17 @ Bills W 13–6 38% +62

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Jets’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Rest−0.6−0.04
Kicks−11.1−0.69
3rd & 4th downs−11.8−0.74
Fumble bounces−15.7−0.98
Injuries−16.7−1.04
Judgment calls−50.1−3.13