luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Jets, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Raiders 34–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.1 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:19 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 6, worth 9 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Oakland Raiders 3
New York Jets 34

November 24, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +25 Jets lucky · −25 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 OAK 24 NYJ 6
  2. 2 OAK 19 NYJ 10
  3. 3 OAK 20 NYJ 17
  4. 4 OAK 17 NYJ 20
  5. 5 OAK 28 NYJ 34
  6. 6 OAK 6 NYJ 16
  7. 7 OAK 17 NYJ 30
  8. 8 OAK 13 NYJ 30
  9. 9 OAK 13 NYJ 34
  10. 10 OAK 6 NYJ 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 25% of them, Jets 75%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+3.7%
Raiders by 9–167.4%
Raiders by 1–813.7%
Level after regulation3.4%
Jets by 1–824.1%
Jets by 9–1622.0%
Jets by 17+25.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 32.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 48 yds made · 69% expected
  • S. Ficken, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • S. Ficken, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • S. Ficken, 48 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:49 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% OAK OAK: Field goal
2 Q1 11:19 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% OAK OAK: Field goal
3 Q1 10:04 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% NYJ OAK: Field goal
4 Q1 6:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Daniel Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 267 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +6% OAK OAK: Punt
5 Q2 11:16 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 360 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:20 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +5% NYJ OAK: Missed field goal
7 Q2 7:17 D. Carlson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +7% NYJ OAK: Punt
8 Q2 6:40 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Jets fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Karl Joseph (OAK SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jordan Devey (OAK C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (OAK FS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Jets 100%

Final margin
Jets by 31
Luck in points
1.9 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 32.9
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 25% · Jets 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Raiders · Jets

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