luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Washington, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Lions 19–16, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. Luck ran its way: injuries alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Lions were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:15 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Detroit Lions 16
Washington Redskins 19

November 24, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Lions −4

Luck index +89 Washington very lucky · −89 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 9, Washington wins 1.

  1. 1 DET 40 WAS 7
  2. 2 DET 30 WAS 7
  3. 3 DET 36 WAS 17
  4. 4 DET 21 WAS 6
  5. 5 DET 30 WAS 17
  6. 6 DET 22 WAS 12
  7. 7 DET 20 WAS 13
  8. 8 DET 33 WAS 29
  9. 9 DET 17 WAS 15
  10. 10 DET 19 WAS 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 89% of them, Washington 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+52.3%
Lions by 9–1620.9%
Lions by 1–815.6%
Level after regulation0.9%
Washington by 1–87.0%
Washington by 9–162.5%
Washington by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 3, without the luck Lions by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 39 yds missed · 86% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Prater, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Prater, 49 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 39 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 6 for 65 yards, Washington 8 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:00 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.6 pts
Q2 7:41 False Start on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q2 4:20 Defensive Holding on Washington (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 1:05 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 8 yards +2% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 11:17 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 10:08 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 15 yards +5% DET +1.2 pts
Q3 10:03 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Lions (Will Harris), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.8 pts
Q3 5:30 Face Mask on the Lions (J.D. McKissic), 15 yards +6% WAS +1.2 pts
Q3 1:32 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.3 pts
Q4 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.2 pts
Q4 10:15 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +16% WAS +2.9 pts
Q4 8:55 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 7:41 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Lions, 10 yards +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 5:43 Illegal Block Above the Waist on Washington, 10 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:57 M. Prater missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +10% WAS DET: Field goal
2 Q2 13:09 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:08 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 544 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +9% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q3 6:45 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% DET DET: Punt
5 Q3 0:31 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% DET DET: Field goal
6 Q4 10:15 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q4 8:55 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% DET DET: Punt
8 Q4 1:58 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +9% DET WAS: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Norman (WAS CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Daron Payne (WAS NT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.0 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 44% · Washington 56%

Final margin
Washington by 3
Luck in points
6.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Lions 89% · Washington 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Lions · Washington

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