luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Lions at Washington, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

Washington stole one. They beat the Lions 19–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 6.5 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Lions were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:54 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 25 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Detroit Lions 16
Washington Redskins 19

November 24, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Lions −4

Luck index +87 Washington very lucky · −87 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 9, Washington win 1.

  1. 1 DET 43 WAS 10
  2. 2 DET 34 WAS 10
  3. 3 DET 31 WAS 10
  4. 4 DET 23 WAS 6
  5. 5 DET 25 WAS 10
  6. 6 DET 27 WAS 15
  7. 7 DET 22 WAS 13
  8. 8 DET 25 WAS 20
  9. 9 DET 22 WAS 20
  10. 10 DET 9 WAS 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 87% of them, Washington 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+48.9%
Lions by 9–1620.0%
Lions by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Washington by 1–86.6%
Washington by 9–163.6%
Washington by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 39 yds missed · 85% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Prater, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Prater, 49 yds made · 68% expected
  • M. Prater, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 39 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedWashington fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% DET WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 13:09 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:08 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 544 snaps before, position avg 1 per 465 +14% DET DET: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:31 The Lions converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% DET DET: Field goal
5 Q4 10:22 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% DET WAS: Punt
6 Q4 10:15 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q4 8:55 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% DET DET: Punt
8 Q4 0:54 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +25% WAS DET: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vernon Davis (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Norman (WAS CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Daron Payne (WAS NT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Thompson (WAS RB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (DET QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 6.0 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kerryon Johnson (DET RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 52% · Washington 48%

Final margin
Washington by 3
Luck in points
10.1 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Lions 87% · Washington 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Lions · Washington

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