luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Bears, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Giants 19–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.5 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Bears were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:55 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 14
Chicago Bears 19

November 24, 2019 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −6

Luck index +39 Bears lucky · −39 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 4, Bears win 6.

  1. 1 NYG 30 CHI 9
  2. 2 NYG 33 CHI 20
  3. 3 NYG 25 CHI 18
  4. 4 NYG 26 CHI 24
  5. 5 NYG 19 CHI 21
  6. 6 NYG 19 CHI 23
  7. 7 NYG 16 CHI 23
  8. 8 NYG 16 CHI 27
  9. 9 NYG 7 CHI 23
  10. 10 NYG 10 CHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 39% of them, Bears 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+7.3%
Giants by 9–1612.4%
Giants by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation3.1%
Bears by 1–824.9%
Bears by 9–1616.7%
Bears by 17+16.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 2.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 42 yds missed · 82% expected
  • A. Rosas, 43 yds missed · 80% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:49 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% NYG CHI: Turnover
2 Q2 11:55 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +22% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:50 A. Rosas missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +9% CHI NYG: Missed field goal
4 Q2 2:00 A. Rosas missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +13% CHI NYG: End of half
5 Q3 7:02 The Giants fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CHI NYG: Punt
6 Q4 4:17 The Giants converted 4th & 183rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:55 The Giants converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:50 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +12% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyle Long (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Danny Trevathan (CHI LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Trey Burton (CHI TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Evan Engram (NYG TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bennie Fowler (NYG WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Connelly (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 46% · Bears 54%

Final margin
Bears by 5
Luck in points
2.9 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 39% · Bears 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Giants · Bears

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