luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Titans, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 42–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.2 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Titans were 63% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Tennessee Titans 42

November 24, 2019 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4.5

Luck index +8 Titans about even · −8 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 18 TEN 10
  2. 2 JAX 21 TEN 24
  3. 3 JAX 13 TEN 20
  4. 4 JAX 24 TEN 33
  5. 5 JAX 26 TEN 39
  6. 6 JAX 20 TEN 37
  7. 7 JAX 17 TEN 37
  8. 8 JAX 10 TEN 34
  9. 9 JAX 10 TEN 38
  10. 10 JAX 7 TEN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 8% of them, Titans 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.5%
Jaguars by 9–161.4%
Jaguars by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation0.9%
Titans by 1–811.1%
Titans by 9–1620.0%
Titans by 17+60.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 22. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 20.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Lambo, 50 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q1 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q1 9:36 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% TEN JAX: Punt
4 Q1 7:44 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 3:34 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Jaguars (Keelan Cole), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 196 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +6% TEN JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 1:55 J. Lambo made 49-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +4% JAX JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Malcolm Butler (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marcell Dareus (JAX DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 22
Luck in points
1.6 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 20.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 8% · Titans 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Jaguars · Titans

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