luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Patriots, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots stole one. They beat the Cowboys 13–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 2.5 points to the Patriots.

The Patriots won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Patriots were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:23 left): Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 9
New England Patriots 13

November 24, 2019 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −5.5

Luck index +86 Patriots very lucky · −86 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 32 NE 0
  2. 2 DAL 41 NE 17
  3. 3 DAL 41 NE 21
  4. 4 DAL 44 NE 27
  5. 5 DAL 31 NE 17
  6. 6 DAL 24 NE 13
  7. 7 DAL 25 NE 17
  8. 8 DAL 27 NE 21
  9. 9 DAL 23 NE 21
  10. 10 DAL 13 NE 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Patriots won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

51 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.17 worse by 0.23
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed −0.11 +0.09 better by 0.21
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained −0.11 +0.15 worse by 0.26
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.03 better by 0.09

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 86% of them, Patriots 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+44.5%
Cowboys by 9–1621.4%
Cowboys by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.2%
Patriots by 1–89.1%
Patriots by 9–163.0%
Patriots by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 46 yds missed · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. Maher, 46 yds made · 67% expected
  • N. Folk, 46 yds missed · 70% expected
  • B. Maher, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 48 yds missed · 65% expected
  • N. Folk, 42 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. Maher, 29 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:44 B. Maher missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +9% NE DAL: Punt
2 Q2 14:23 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +8% NE DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 0:44 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NE NE: Missed field goal
4 Q3 11:00 The Patriots converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +9% NE NE: Punt
5 Q3 1:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% NE NE: Field goal
6 Q4 8:53 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% NE NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:50 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NE DAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jason McCourty (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mohamed Sanu (NE WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Phillip Dorsett (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 30% · Patriots 70%

Final margin
Patriots by 4
Luck in points
1.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 86% · Patriots 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Cowboys · Patriots

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