Week 12 2019 · November 24, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Patriots, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?
The Patriots beat the Cowboys 13–9, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.
The Patriots won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Patriots were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:23 left): Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 9 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +88 Patriots very lucky · −88 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Patriots win 1.
- 1 DAL 41 NE 10
- 2 DAL 30 NE 6
- 3 DAL 30 NE 10
- 4 DAL 33 NE 17
- 5 DAL 27 NE 14
- 6 DAL 20 NE 9
- 7 DAL 19 NE 12
- 8 DAL 24 NE 20
- 9 DAL 10 NE 8
- 10 DAL 13 NE 20
Your call
Did the Patriots earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Patriots won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
54 points apart for the Patriots: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | −0.06 | +0.17 | worse by 0.23 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.09 | better by 0.21 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.15 | worse by 0.26 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.06 | +0.03 | better by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 88% of them, Patriots 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 43.8% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 23.0% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 19.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. Maher, 46 yds missed · 69% expected
- N. Folk, 44 yds made · 75% expected
- B. Maher, 46 yds made · 68% expected
- N. Folk, 46 yds missed · 71% expected
- B. Maher, 27 yds made · 95% expected
- N. Folk, 48 yds missed · 65% expected
- N. Folk, 42 yds made · 79% expected
- B. Maher, 29 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 7 for 50 yards, Patriots 6 for 56 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:12 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 16 yards | +3% DAL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 8:41 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NE +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:01 | Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +1% NE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 6:51 | False Start on the Patriots (Danny Shelton), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 4:33 | Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 15 yards | +4% DAL +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:14 | False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:38 | Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards | +3% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:23 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NE +2.9 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NE +0.2 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Illegal Motion on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NE +0.1 pts |
| Q4 13:28 | False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 11:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards | +1% NE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +11% NE +1.6 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:44 | B. Maher missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +9% NE | DAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:51 | N. Folk missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ beforeFalse Start on the Patriots (Danny Shelton), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 353 snaps before, position avg 1 per 242 | +8% DAL | NE: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:44 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% NE | NE: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 11:00 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +9% NE | NE: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 1:23 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% NE | NE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 8:53 | The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 6:15 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% NE | DAL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 2:00 | Tripping on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +11% NE | NE: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jason McCourty (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Mohamed Sanu (NE WR), out · 0.5 pts
- Stephen Gostkowski (NE K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Phillip Dorsett (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
- Devin Smith (DAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 18% · Patriots 82%
- Final margin
- Patriots by 4
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Cowboys
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 88% · Patriots 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · 
Cowboys · 
Patriots
More from Week 12 2019
- Colts at Texans HOU 20–17 · replay 56% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 34–31 · replay 83% for the winner
- Broncos at Bills BUF 20–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Lions at Washington WAS 19–16 · replay 11% for the winner
- Dolphins at Browns CLE 41–24 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 19–14 · replay 61% for the winner
- Raiders at Jets NYJ 34–3 · replay 75% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 16–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Seahawks at Eagles SEA 17–9 · replay 53% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 35–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 42–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Packers at 49ers SF 37–8 · replay 94% for the winner
- Ravens at Rams BAL 45–6 · replay 97% for the winner