luckadjusted

Week 12 2019 · November 21, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Texans, Week 12 2019: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Colts 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:14 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 13, worth 11 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 17
Houston Texans 20

November 21, 2019 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +46 Texans lucky · −46 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Texans win 5.

  1. 1 IND 40 HOU 21
  2. 2 IND 20 HOU 7
  3. 3 IND 24 HOU 17
  4. 4 IND 21 HOU 17
  5. 5 IND 19 HOU 17
  6. 6 IND 12 HOU 14
  7. 7 IND 16 HOU 20
  8. 8 IND 3 HOU 9
  9. 9 IND 10 HOU 20
  10. 10 IND 20 HOU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 46% of them, Texans 54%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+7.5%
Colts by 9–1613.9%
Colts by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation6.5%
Texans by 1–826.0%
Texans by 9–1613.8%
Texans by 17+9.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:14 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% HOU HOU: Field goal
2 Q2 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% HOU HOU: Turnover
3 Q2 2:59 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:46 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 6:42 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% IND IND: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:05 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% HOU IND: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 3:00 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% HOU –
8 Q4 1:48 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • J.J. Watt (HOU DE), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Clark (HOU T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Keke Coutee (HOU WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Marlon Mack (IND RB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 55% · Texans 45%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 46% · Texans 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2019 games · Colts · Texans

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