2019 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2019: game by game
The Colts went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.3 wins. Luck cost them 2.3: the 7th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Chargers | L 24–30 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 2 | @ Titans | W 19–17 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 3 | vs Falcons | W 27–24 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | vs Raiders | L 24–31 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 5 | @ Chiefs | W 19–13 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 7 | vs Texans | W 30–23 | 12% | +88 |
| Week 8 | vs Broncos | W 15–13 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 24–26 | 76% | −76 |
| Week 10 | vs Dolphins | L 12–16 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 11 | vs Jaguars | W 33–13 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 12 | @ Texans | L 17–20 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 13 | vs Titans | L 17–31 | 72% | −72 |
| Week 14 | @ Buccaneers | L 35–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 15 | @ Saints | L 7–34 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 16 | vs Panthers | W 38–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | @ Jaguars | L 20–38 | 44% | −44 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Colts’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.14 | +12.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | −3.0 |
| Injuries | −0.05 | −2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.44 | −12.6 |
| Kicks | −1.53 | −32.3 |