luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Colts, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Colts 31–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Colts were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:17 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Oakland Raiders 31
Indianapolis Colts 24

September 29, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −5.5

Luck index +45 Raiders lucky · −45 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Colts win 4.

  1. 1 OAK 40 IND 13
  2. 2 OAK 30 IND 13
  3. 3 OAK 25 IND 14
  4. 4 OAK 31 IND 23
  5. 5 OAK 20 IND 16
  6. 6 OAK 30 IND 28
  7. 7 OAK 21 IND 23
  8. 8 OAK 28 IND 34
  9. 9 OAK 20 IND 31
  10. 10 OAK 24 IND 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 55% of them, Colts 45%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+12.6%
Raiders by 9–1615.0%
Raiders by 1–822.3%
Level after regulation5.7%
Colts by 1–821.9%
Colts by 9–1612.4%
Colts by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 57 yds missed · 63% expected
  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:31 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:18 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% OAK OAK: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:46 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Colts fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% OAK IND: Missed field goal
4 Q2 2:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 9 yardsJudgment calls +9% IND OAK: Punt
5 Q2 1:59 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% OAK OAK: Punt
6 Q2 1:27 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Raiders (Corey Liuget), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +8% IND IND: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:48 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% OAK OAK: Punt
8 Q4 2:17 Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +11% OAK OAK: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Gabe Jackson (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 90% · Colts 10%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
0.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 55% · Colts 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Raiders · Colts

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