luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Colts, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Colts 31–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:17 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 11 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Oakland Raiders 31
Indianapolis Colts 24

September 29, 2019 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −5.5

Luck index +41 Raiders lucky · −41 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 6, Colts win 4.

  1. 1 OAK 22 IND 0
  2. 2 OAK 37 IND 23
  3. 3 OAK 20 IND 10
  4. 4 OAK 24 IND 17
  5. 5 OAK 27 IND 23
  6. 6 OAK 29 IND 27
  7. 7 OAK 37 IND 40
  8. 8 OAK 17 IND 24
  9. 9 OAK 32 IND 45
  10. 10 OAK 27 IND 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 59% of them, Colts 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+14.4%
Raiders by 9–1615.7%
Raiders by 1–827.8%
Level after regulation3.2%
Colts by 1–818.4%
Colts by 9–1613.0%
Colts by 17+7.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 7, without the luck Raiders by 6.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Vinatieri, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • A. Vinatieri, 57 yds missed · 65% expected
  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 11 for 80 yards, Colts 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:26 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% OAK +0.4 pts
Q1 6:55 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 10 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 11:42 Disqualification on the Raiders, 15 yards +3% IND +1.8 pts
Q2 9:58 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.2 pts
Q2 4:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Parris Campbell), 10 yards +3% OAK +1.2 pts
Q2 2:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 9 yards +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 1:59 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% OAK +1.5 pts
Q2 1:27 Defensive Delay of Game on the Raiders (Corey Liuget), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 0:48 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% OAK +1.3 pts
Q3 0:32 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 6 yards +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 6:03 Face Mask on the Raiders, 10 yards 0% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 5:45 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Lamarcus Joyner), 5 yards 0% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 5:27 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 4:41 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 3:17 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q4 2:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% OAK +1.3 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:31 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% OAK OAK: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:18 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% OAK OAK: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:07 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Colts (Parris Campbell), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 80 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +3% OAK OAK: Punt
4 Q2 2:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 9 yardsJudgment calls +7% IND OAK: Punt
5 Q2 1:59 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% OAK OAK: Punt
6 Q2 1:27 The Colts converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Raiders (Corey Liuget), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +8% IND IND: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:48 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% OAK OAK: Punt
8 Q4 2:17 Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +11% OAK OAK: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Gabe Jackson (OAK G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 92% · Colts 8%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
0.5 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.5
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 59% · Colts 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Raiders · Colts

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