luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Giants, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat Washington 24–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Giants were 59% favorites.

Final

Washington Redskins 3
New York Giants 24

September 29, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −3

Luck index +27 Giants lucky · −27 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 3, Giants win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 34 NYG 17
  2. 2 WAS 31 NYG 23
  3. 3 WAS 16 NYG 14
  4. 4 WAS 26 NYG 28
  5. 5 WAS 16 NYG 21
  6. 6 WAS 13 NYG 20
  7. 7 WAS 20 NYG 31
  8. 8 WAS 19 NYG 35
  9. 9 WAS 6 NYG 26
  10. 10 WAS 12 NYG 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 27% of them, Giants 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+3.9%
Washington by 9–167.4%
Washington by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation4.1%
Giants by 1–824.2%
Giants by 9–1619.9%
Giants by 17+26.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 21, without the luck Giants by 15.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Rosas, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 12 for 58 yards, Giants 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:35 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +3% WAS +1.6 pts
Q1 9:50 Defensive Offside on Washington (Josh Norman), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.2 pts
Q1 9:17 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q1 6:32 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 6:08 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 1:09 Defensive Holding on Washington (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards +6% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 13:15 Face Mask on Washington (Josh Norman), 2 yards 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q2 12:10 Defensive Holding on Washington (Montae Nicholson), 0 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts
Q2 11:56 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 5:21 Illegal Formation on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 0:11 Defensive Holding on Washington (Fabian Moreau), 3 yards +1% NYG 0.0 pts
Q2 0:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Cody Latimer), 10 yards +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +2.1 pts
Q3 5:41 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +1% WAS +1.1 pts
Q3 1:19 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 14:22 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 6:39 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 2 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:35 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 11:41 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:13 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:14 Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +3% WAS WAS: Punt
5 Q1 1:09 Defensive Holding on Washington (Fabian Moreau), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 60 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:17 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NYG NYG: Turnover
7 Q3 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q3 1:29 Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +5% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Alec Ogletree (NYG LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Terry McLaurin (WAS WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 0% · Giants 100%

Final margin
Giants by 21
Luck in points
5.2 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 15.8
Replay with same day's form
Washington 27% · Giants 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Washington · Giants

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