luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Saints, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Cowboys 12–10, but the replays lean toward the Cowboys: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:51 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 12, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 10
New Orleans Saints 12

September 29, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Cowboys −2.5

Luck index +60 Saints very lucky · −60 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 DAL 37 NO 13
  2. 2 DAL 38 NO 21
  3. 3 DAL 23 NO 10
  4. 4 DAL 19 NO 9
  5. 5 DAL 23 NO 17
  6. 6 DAL 23 NO 20
  7. 7 DAL 14 NO 17
  8. 8 DAL 21 NO 27
  9. 9 DAL 16 NO 27
  10. 10 DAL 10 NO 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 60% of them, Saints 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+14.5%
Cowboys by 9–1616.0%
Cowboys by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.6%
Saints by 1–819.5%
Saints by 9–1612.8%
Saints by 17+6.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 2, without the luck Cowboys by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • W. Lutz, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • W. Lutz, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 64 yards, Saints 9 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:13 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q1 10:03 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DAL +2.6 pts
Q1 7:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Vonn Bell), 15 yards +6% DAL +1.7 pts
Q1 4:28 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 15 yards +5% NO +1.5 pts
Q1 0:56 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Saints (Michael Thomas), 10 yards +2% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 12:49 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DAL +1.7 pts
Q2 7:07 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.7 pts
Q2 2:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NO +1.8 pts
Q2 0:39 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 14 yards +4% NO +1.6 pts
Q3 11:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 5 yards +3% DAL +1.0 pts
Q3 0:16 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Eli Apple), 5 yards +6% DAL +1.3 pts
Q4 11:26 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards +2% DAL +1.2 pts
Q4 6:58 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 0:30 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yards +7% NO +0.2 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:03 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 7:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Vonn Bell), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 233 snaps before, position avg 1 per 441 +6% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 13:42 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% NO DAL: Punt
4 Q2 2:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 176 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +8% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q4 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Eli Apple), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 215 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q4 0:51 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% DAL DAL: Turnover
7 Q4 0:30 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 176 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +7% NO –
8 Q4 0:17 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +12% DAL DAL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out, replaced by t.bridgewater · 0.2 pts
  • Alex Anzalone (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Tyrone Crawford (DAL DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL NT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 51% · Saints 49%

Final margin
Saints by 2
Luck in points
2.7 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 60% · Saints 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Cowboys · Saints

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