luckadjusted

Week 4 2019 · September 29, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Ravens, Week 4 2019: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Ravens 40–25, but the Ravens played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:42 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Cleveland Browns 40
Baltimore Ravens 25

September 29, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +72 Browns very lucky · −72 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 40 BAL 24
  2. 2 CLE 36 BAL 28
  3. 3 CLE 31 BAL 28
  4. 4 CLE 45 BAL 47
  5. 5 CLE 27 BAL 33
  6. 6 CLE 14 BAL 23
  7. 7 CLE 35 BAL 47
  8. 8 CLE 13 BAL 28
  9. 9 CLE 28 BAL 49
  10. 10 CLE 21 BAL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 28% of them, Ravens 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+4.8%
Browns by 9–167.6%
Browns by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation3.0%
Ravens by 1–822.6%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 17+26.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 15. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 17.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • A. Seibert, 43 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:15 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% BAL CLE: Punt
2 Q1 10:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:29 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 160 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:57 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:42 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +10% BAL CLE: Field goal
6 Q2 2:14 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:16 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% BAL CLE: Field goal
8 Q3 6:20 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Williams (BAL DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Morgan Burnett (CLE SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Genard Avery (CLE LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 100% · Ravens 0%

Final margin
Browns by 15
Luck in points
2.9 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 28% · Ravens 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2019 games · Browns · Ravens

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